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Wednesday, July 25, 2018

The Dow continued its climb and gained 172 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  All signs now are pointing to higher prices despite being overbought on the technical indicators.  The volume even though being average has picked up to the upside from the weak levels seen before.  The RUT isn't leading here but the NASDAQ set a new all time high today.  Earnings are coming in strong and the market certainly likes that.  The S&P 500 is within shouting distance of setting a new all time high.  That would negate my theory that the top was seen in January for the S&P.  It would also set aside my idea that we completed a five wave up pattern from the lows of 2009.  Basically all my ideas and trades since the beginning of the year would be wrong.  That kind of makes sense because I've had loser after loser trading the SPY.  We'll have to see if the S&P sets a new high.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold rose $7 as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on average volume.  My GDX September calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN bounced back strongly today and now has a bullish daily candlestick implying more gains to come.  Although the Dow is far from its all time high, the S&P is almost there.  The NYA remains pretty far from its all time high as well.  But the small stocks continue to act well.  That bodes well for the overall market.  It does appear that the S&P 500 will make it to new highs in the coming sessions.  Whether or not to get some SPY puts when it does is the question that I'm considering at the moment.  Perhaps going out to September would be the right idea here.  Or maybe the market just gets going higher and doesn't look back like it did in January.  Never any easy trades in this game.  The VIX remains low and that's a plus for higher prices as well.  So we'll see.  Asia was up and Europe down overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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