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Monday, July 16, 2018

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index should turn around today but it may be just sideways for now.  Or not.  RUT was lower and it has been the leader so far this year.  The TRAN took a hit and sits right on its 200 day moving average.  The major stock indices are overbought and the VIX is oversold and that is a recipe for a decline of some sort in the near term.  I could be wrong.  It is options expiration week though and the positive bias may have an effect on prices.  I am looking at the SPY August puts.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX September calls just a touch.  This order is close to being filled and I may just go ahead and have it filled tomorrow.  However if the overall market rolls over here, I would expect the gold shares to go with it and that would turn this idea into a losing trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has been hanging around the 2800 level for 3 days and can't seem to make up its mind what it wants to do here.  I am more of a believer in the puts here than the calls despite options expiration.  But I am not going to attempt a trade with 4 days left in the July option cycle for the July SPY options.  The risk is  not worth it in my humble opinion.  Plus the volume has been pretty weak lately and that may be the summer doldrums effect taking place.  That would mean the market may just meander this week.  So for now I'll keep an eye on GDX and the SPY August put prices.  Europe and Asia were weaker overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the trading overnight.

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