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Tuesday, July 31, 2018

We ended the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 108 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  Price action today came off of the highs set earlier in the session.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow but it should be a non-event.  I'm leaving my open order for the SPY August puts out there.  Another day like today and it might get filled.  If I do this trade I would like to be in it before Fridays jobs report.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  It looks like there could be a longer term double bottom in place here.  By longer term I mean that it has taken six months to form.  Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher as well.  The XAU was slightly higher and GDX was basically unchanged.  No love for the gold shares remains the theme here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  Just another day in the summer for the market.  We had some snap back in the oversold small stocks to end the month.  Will we see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow?  Has this short term decline run its course already?  Always plenty of questions in the game with the answers to come shortly.  The VIX rolled back down today and did not breach the 200 day moving average to the upside.  That can be viewed as a positive for the bulls.  I'm still in the camp that a bigger decline is coming here for stocks.  However if the RUT goes up from here and makes a new all time high, I'll change my view.  Hasn't happened yet.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say about things tomorrow.       

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