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Monday, July 09, 2018

The rally is on as the Dow soared 320 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Trade tariff fears have moved to the sidelines as buyers have emerged.  The volume remains light but the VIX is well below  the important 15 level.  It stands at 12 and change for now.  Perhaps a trade for the SPY July puts will set up in the coming days.  However the short term technical indicators are not completely overbought just yet.  So for now it's a watch and wait period for me.  GE was up a dime on what passes for average volume now.  Gold and the US dollar were both slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  They did have a one day reversal to the downside though as they both opened higher and closed lower.  Perhaps we'll get a chance to purchase the GDX September calls in the coming days.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some of the small cap indices are knocking on the door of new all time highs.  The S&P 500 is getting close to the resistance at 2800.  What happens there will be the key as to whether we attempt a run at the all time highs in the S&P.  I'm still in the camp that the rally that began in 2009 is over.  So we'll have to see what happens in the coming days.  Earnings season is back upon us and the earnings have been pretty good lately.  We'll have to see if they're enough to lead the market to new all time highs.  We'll get inflation data this week as well.  For now we'll wait and see if the small caps are making double tops or not.  We should know the answers soon.  But it does feel like a summer rally is in progress and higher prices are in the cards.  Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.     

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