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Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Tariffs returned to the news and subsequently the Dow dropped.  The most watched index shed 219 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index should start to stall here and turn sideways if not lower if stocks keep dropping.  That will be the question going forward.  Was today just a one day event or have we begun to roll over once again?  The S&P 500 turned away just shy of the 2800 level.  That is a key to watch to see if we can break that to the upside.  The small stocks may be putting in short term double tops here as well.  So even though it's summer, we are at an important juncture for the market in my mind.  The VIX is still below the 15 level but we're bouncing off of oversold readings on the short term indicators.  I'll be keeping a close eye on things as they develop going forward.  GE was off around 20 cents on light volume.  GE may have a short term double top on the daily chart as well.  Gold was lower as commodities dropped hard today, most likely tariff related.  The precious metal futures dipped over a dozen as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX fell almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  I adjusted my open order for the GDX September calls lower.  I may be early on this trade because todays price action was pretty bearish.  If it holds for the week, the weekly candlestick chart for GDX will have a bearish engulfing pattern.  That implies even lower prices to come.  The short term technical indicators have all rolled over here.  So I may adjust the order again overnight depending on what gold does before the US open tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough.  I think that we'll know soon enough if the summer rally is really here or that prices remain in a trading range.  I haven't given up on the idea that the rally from 2009 is over.  That is my main premise and I am looking for a substantial drop in stocks in the months ahead.  I may even begin looking at the SPY August puts.  Unfortunately we are back to the headline risk environment and that is unpredictable.  It makes the trading harder than usual and it's a challenge to begin with.  Today could have been worse for stocks so we'll have to see where we go from here.  Europe and Asia had sell offs as well.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tonight and see where things go tomorrow. 

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