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Thursday, July 19, 2018

Some selling today as the Dow shed 134 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index is moving sideways.  RUT was higher today.  The market is trying to make up its mind on what to do here.  Still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  The S&P 500 remains above the 2800 level for now.  We're either forming a top here or pausing before an attempt at new all time highs for the S&P.  I am still looking at the SPY August puts.  No hurry to purchase though.  GE was basically flat but volume picked up.  Gold bounced around today and ended up losing $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost over 1/4.  Volume picked up going lower.  There's really no chart support here for gold and the gold shares.  My GDX September calls are now in the red.  Gold will have to turn around here soon or this trade will be dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX perked up a bit today and has plenty of room to move higher as it remains oversold.  That would seem to place a better chance that we're forming some type of top here.  Option expiration tomorrow so we'll see if there's any fireworks with that.  The market seems to be searching for direction in the past week and a half.  I'll try and remain patient for now but I think that the odds favor some kind of drop here versus another leg up rally.  I could be wrong and often am.  I think that I'll let tomorrow pass and take things from there.  Asia and Europe were lower in overnight trade.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

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