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Tuesday, July 03, 2018

A one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow dropped 132 points in a holiday shortened session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though.  Not sure what that means but it should turn the summation index sideways.  The usual positive market activity around July the 4th did not take place today.  The market activity remains sloppy.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  The VIX got below the 15 level and abruptly turned back up.  We may be back in that range again for the VIX where 15 is the bottom.  If so expect more volatility going forward and lower prices.  That seems to be where we are headed.  GE was flat and the volume light.  Gold found buyers today as the futures rose a dozen.  $1240 has held for now.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was up 3/8.  Volume was good for a shortened session.  We saw gold drop yesterday but the gold shares didn't react.  Today we saw both gold and the gold shares move up.  We also saw the gold shares run up two days ago when gold barely moved.  What it looks like to me is that money is starting to come into the gold shares.  The seasonality strength time period for gold is coming up.  I am now pretty sure that the GDX September calls will be my next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I don't want to make a lot of the price action today but it is concerning.  With the jobs report on Friday, this could be a week that you need to pay more attention than usual for a holiday week.  We'll have to see how the foreign markets do over the next couple of sessions before Thursdays open.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll enjoy the 4th of July holiday tomorrow and be back here on Thursday.   

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