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Wednesday, August 01, 2018

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is back to trending lower.  The NASDAQ was higher as the overall market fared better than the Dow.  The Fed had no surprises and the market really didn't do much after that.  We are oversold on the small cap indices and it looks like the indicators want to turn around to the upside on the big caps.  I canceled my open order for the SPY August puts.  I may revisit this idea going forward but for now I'm going to let the employment report pass and go from there.  I do still favor the downside here but think that we'll see some kind of blip higher first.  I could be wrong.  GE lost all it gained yesterday on light volume.  Perhaps my idea of a double bottom is wrong here but it sure looks like that to me.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish and the positive seasonal effect hasn't showed up.  The XAU lost 1 3/8, while GDX had a fractional loss.  Volume was average.  My GDX September calls are solidly in the red and this trade looks like it will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The jobs report on Friday will be the next market mover.  I'm guessing tomorrow will be a wait and see affair.  The VIX ticked up a bit today and the Bollinger bands are starting to tighten on the daily chart there.  So we should see something rather big in the market pretty soon.  The surprise to me would be if it was to the upside.  We'll see.  The gold shares are oversold and staying there.  That certainly isn't bullish.  At this point about all I can do is wait for a bounce to cut the loss.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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