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Thursday, August 02, 2018

I thought that today would be quiet ahead of the jobs report but it was anything but that.  The Dow lost 7 points today but came all the way back from being 200 points lower early on.  Other indices had one day upside reversals.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average.  We opened as if the market was about to fall off a cliff.  But buyers quickly stepped in to bring stocks all the way back and then some.  The small stocks led the way and that is bullish.  The VIX once again held its 200 day moving average.  The market had a feel yesterday of wanting to move higher as the short term technical indicators started to turn up.  We'll see if there is ant follow through tomorrow.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost $10 as the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional downside moves on average volume.  The technical indicators for the gold shares are completely blown out to the downside and have remained oversold for a few weeks.  There is no seasonal strength as I had anticipated and my GDX September calls are so far gone in the red that they will not be coming back.  Barring a complete reversal in gold, this trade will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  After todays price action I can only expect higher stock prices tomorrow.  It may not matter what the employment report says.  I also get the feeling now that we could be about to explode to the upside as the shorts will have to cover if we get going higher.  That's just a guess on my part.  The technicals have turned up for the major stock indices.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were lower, with China leading the way down.  We'll see how the weeks closes out tomorrow.

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