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Monday, August 06, 2018

Grinding higher today as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  It was a one day reversal to the upside for most of the stock indexes.  The small stocks are acting well here and I expect new all time highs set in some of the indices in the near term.  The VIX is below 12 and looks like it could head below 11.  I'm looking out to the SPY September puts for the next trade.  However I am thinking that perhaps things will be run higher into the expiration August 17th.  So for now I'm trying to be patient.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX September calls are big losers as I did not put in a stop loss order as I should have.  Not a lot of money in this trade but the percentage loss will be high.  I do not think that the seasonal rally is going to show up this year as the fundamentals are negative and I don't see any change in that.  The fact that the gold shares have been oversold and have remained that way for weeks is another factor that has negated the usual rally seen in gold at this time of the year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The beginning of August and all seems clear for stocks to move higher in the coming days.  I'll be looking for new all time highs in the S&P 500 before option expiration.  We are getting pretty close.  Getting short term overbought for the S&P but that doesn't mean we can't remain that way and pull higher.  For now I'll watch and wait.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading and headlines.

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