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Friday, August 31, 2018

Drifting around and getting nowhere today as the Dow fell 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  The small stocks remain strong and it appears that higher prices are in the wings.  We're still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  My SPY September puts are in the red.  I do think that I'll be stopped out on Tuesday morning barring some negative headline over the long holiday weekend.  Volume should picks up next week with everyone back at their desks.  If it doesn't, then I'd start to worry about the duration of this breakout.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was flat while the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares remain unloved.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was quite a positive month in August for stocks as we roll into September.  We've broken out on the S&P 500 and there is no overhead resistance.  The market is overbought but during rallies it simply stays that way.  That's what we've seen here lately.  I've tried the SPY puts again but my entry timing was off and this trade doesn't look like it will pan out either.  We'll see what comes out of the weekend but I don't expect much.  There will be economic data to trade off of next week including the jobs report on Friday.  Right now the market has the look and feel of something that wants to go higher.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the month overseas.  It's a long holiday weekend here in the US and the unofficial end of summer.  I'll check the charts over the weekend but it appears for now that we're in rally mode until proven otherwise.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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