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Wednesday, August 08, 2018

A day of hanging around for the most part as the Dow lost 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Not a lot of action in price today.  We did get a signal in the McClellan oscillator yesterday for a big move in the next two trading sessions.  We didn't get it today so we'll have to see if it shows up tomorrow.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY September puts.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today finally had the feel of the summer doldrums as not much happened in prices or on the news front.  I'm still thinking that things will be run higher into option expiration next week and that the S&P 500 will hit a new all time high by then.  I could be wrong and often am.  However barring some outside headline event, I do believe that will be the near term path for stocks despite the overbought condition.  We are in a seasonal weak period for stocks.  Combine that with the overbought condition and you can see the basis for trying the SPY puts.  Going out to September should give the trade enough time to work if my order does get filled.  It is also a seasonally strong period for gold and that trade has blown up in my face by having gold stay oversold for weeks on end.  so as usual there are no guarantees when it comes to seasonal trades.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading action. 

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