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Thursday, August 30, 2018

Lower on trade concerns today as the Dow fell 137 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading up.  More tariff noise out of the white house today and that sent stocks lower.  The small stocks held up rather well though, so that tells me that this decline shouldn't last long.  The VIX spiked higher but it probably won't last.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are still overbought.  My SPY September puts are still showing a loss.  The timing there on the entry was off by a couple of days.  GE lost 20 cents on light volume.  Gold dropped five bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One more trading day for the month of August and it's the last day of summer vacation for players as well.  We should be back at full strength on Tuesday as Monday is the Labor day holiday.  The market is still in rally mode but I would suggest that it needs a rest.  We're back at the mercy of headline risk.  Today was simply another quiet summer day until something came out of Washington about the tariffs again.  The market has been able to ignore this kind of news all summer.  I would not expect that to change.  Overbought, staying that way and I don't see any substantial decline coming until the technical indicators roll over.  The small stocks continue to act well and that is a positive.  When we see RUT and the NASDAQ start to drop, then we'll get an actual decline.  Until then the trend is up.  We did get a light volume breakout to new all time highs.  We'll see if it holds going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll finish up the month of August tomorrow.     

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