Pageviews past week

Friday, August 10, 2018

Headline risk reared its ugly head today and the Dow fell 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Trouble in Turkey as its currency is losing its value rapidly.  It is a repeat of the Greek fiasco from early last year.  The trouble in Turkey had been on the market radar recently but today was the day the market decided to react.  I don't know if this puts a cap on the stock market or if it is just a passing fad that will go away next week.  We'll have to see how it all plays out.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over o it may be too late for the SPY puts.  I am leaving my open order out there though.  GE was off over 1/8 and volume picked up a little.  Gold finished the day flat despite a huge run higher in the US dollar.  The flight to safety is on for the dollar but not for gold.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Seasonality with its usual positive bias has yet to show up for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summer doldrums came to an abrupt halt today.  They didn't last long anyway and have been hard to find this year.  My idea of new all time highs before the expiration in a week seems to be out the window as well.  The VIX has now spiked over 13.  This tells me that the run we just had into the tens for the VIX will be short lived and is probably over.  My hope is that the market sees some kind of final rally attempt next week before we roll over for good here.  But that roll over process might have started today and the puts will remain pricey form here on out.  I can't say for sure what will happen.  The coming days will tell the story.  If we just keep moving lower it's possible that my original thesis of the high being in place from January could prove correct.  If we move back to new all time highs, then that thesis was wrong.  If we somehow do make a nominal new all time high, there still could be a double top in place on the S&P and a rollover still might happen.  Right now we'll just have to keep an eye on what happens over the weekend and see how the market reacts to events on Monday.  I do not think that the problems in Turkey are going to bring the market down with it but I could be wrong.  It may lead to bigger troubles down the road.  I'll simply keep an eye on things and hope there will be a spot for me to get those SPY September puts.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

No comments: