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Tuesday, August 14, 2018

A bounce back up today as the Dow rose 112 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  A pause in the decline or are we heading back to attempt new all time highs again?  That is the question that will be answered in the coming days.  There's still problems in Turkey so don't expect that issue to just disappear.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn around.  The VIX closed back below its 200 day moving average.  I did leave my open order for the SPY September puts out there.  RUT had a good day and I'm keeping an eye on that.  If RUT breaks to a new all time high, I'll probably take off the SPY trade.  RUT has had a two month consolidation and if it can significantly break above 1700 it would bode well for the overall market.  Hasn't happened yet but it is something to watch.  GE was off another dime on about average volume.  Gold rose a couple bucks as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU fell 7/8, while GDX lost almost 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are completely washed out.  The oversold readings have lasted for weeks.  It is a bloodbath for these shares.  My GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week is upon us and I would normally expect the usual positive bias but we do have the troubles in Turkey to contend with.  The market is susceptible to headline risk at the moment even more so than usual.  I suppose what I'd really like to do is let this week pass and go from there.  There is an extra week in the September option cycle so the premiums remain high.  Even if we did make a nominal new all time high in the S&P, I think that we are going to see some seasonal downside in the September period.  Of course I also expected some seasonal upside for gold and we've seen how that worked out.  Asia was mixed overnight while Europe was little changed.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading headlines.  

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