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Wednesday, June 27, 2018

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 165 points on good volume.  We were up at one point close to 300 points.  The advance/declines were a bit over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Today looks like it would have been a good time to get some SPY puts if you were nimble enough.  I wasn't.  Oversold and staying there for stocks and that will translate into lower prices going forward.  The VIX remains above the 15 level.  As long as it stays above there, things will be volatile.  No real news to speak of for todays movement as the market is weighing on itself.  We did have buyers in the morning but sellers reappeared with a vengeance.  I suppose we'll see how low we go.  I would like to get some SPY July puts but it looks like it's too late for that.  GE was up about 1/4 and the volume is still heavy.  It finished well off of the highs for the day though.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar climbed.  The flight to safety is taking place in the dollar but certainly not gold.  I do not know the reason why but the normal inverse relationship between these two is in place.  However gold is usually viewed as a safe haven but not so far this time around.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that is not a positive.  The Dow is trying to hold the 200 day moving average but closed below it today.  Ditto for the TRAN.  Could the Dow be the leader lower here this time?  I'm still inclined to be thinking that this won't be some kind of blow out downside move because the small stocks have not led the way lower.  This line of thought has served me well in the past.  We are now short term oversold on the technical indicators for all the major stock indices.  I'd like to see a more than one day bounce for the indexes but the market may not cooperate.  Perhaps next week as the July 4th holiday period is generally bullish.  So we'll see.  For now I'll just have to let this week pass and go from there.  Asia sold off last night but Europe closed higher.  We'll keep an eye on tonights price action.  

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