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Friday, June 15, 2018

Lower in general today although we did finish off of the lows for the session.  The Dow fell 84 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  Once again the overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and that's a positive.  The VIX closed below 12 despite some volatility today.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages remain overbought.  That sounds like a broken record lately.  Over and over the technical condition remains the same.  Along with the small stocks having the best relative strength.  As long as this continues, the trend will be for higher prices going forward.  This will eventually change.  When, is the question that needs to be answered.  GE was off about another 1/4 and volume picked up.  Gold took a hit today, down $25.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was very heavy.  It is important for the $1280 level to hold for gold or we will probably be going a lot lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  On to the July option cycle with an extra week in it and high premiums.  It looks like I'll be watching and waiting now for a while before the next trade attempt.  The market remains incredibly resilient.  News one way or the other is not affecting things and all dips are being bought.  My thinking is that the summer rally has already begun.  Whether or not the S&P 500 sets new all time highs remains to be seen.  However I will say that with RUT having already gotten there, perhaps my theory of the end of the bull market from 2009 is wrong.  If the S&P sets a new all time high then the theory will be dead.  But it hasn't happened yet.  RUT is usually a leader both up and down though.  For now we can look at the market that it is overbought and staying that way.  That much we can agree on.  I don't have any solid ideas for trades right now but I am still considering the longer term gold share calls.  Todays drop doesn't change my mind about that but I will wait until we're oversold on the indicators there.  That could take a couple of weeks or so.  For now I'll try and remain patient.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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