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Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Finally some downside today after the Fed as the Dow lost 119 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index may start to head sideways here.  We bounced around after the Fed announcement but sold off again in the final half hour.  Could this be the beginning of some type of sustained decline?  Maybe.  We're still short term overbought on the major index technical indicators.  I did not attempt the SPY June puts again today but I did think about it.  There are some signs that things are getting just a little too bullish.  The problem is that the July option cycle has an extra week so the premiums are pretty pricey right here.  So I suppose I'll just have to remain on the sidelines for now.  We'll get some noise from the ECB tomorrow.  That could move things around as well.  GE was off almost a dime on light volume.  Gold finished up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  The gold shares have been consolidating for months.  The prudent thing to do is wait for the break out and then jump on board.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days to go in expiration week.  Today the overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  The small stocks continue to act better than the big caps and that has been an ongoing theme.  That is bullish.  As long as things remain this way the path of lest resistance remains up.  The S&P 500 has yet to get back to its all time high set in January.  So there is still some chance that my underlying theory of the completion of a 5 wave up pattern here is correct.  But for now signs point to higher prices and my thesis for the S&P may prove to be wrong.  If we get a summer rally that will probably be the case.  The market is overdue for a pause in my opinion and now is a good a time as any.  The VIX still remains low though and below my threshold of 15 for a breakout of volatility.  I'll be simply watching and waiting for the time being.  Asia was mixed and Europe as well overnight.  We'll see if there is any downside follow through tomorrow.

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