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Tuesday, June 26, 2018

The market tried to bounce today but is was pretty anemic.  The Dow rose 30 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  The Dow closed 100 points from the high of the session.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  I still think that we're heading lower going forward.  The VIX did drop today but we're still over the 15 level.  Like I said before, I'm not sure what is going on here but sellers have returned.  I'm not sure if traders are locking in first half profits or what.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  The price action today was sloppy in my humble opinion.  GE saw a spike on comments from the CEO.  It rose a point on very heavy volume.  It appears to have formed a double bottom on the daily chart.  The measuring objective would be 18 if that's the case.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU and GDX ended little changed though.  Volume was very light.  There remains no interest in owning the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN is oversold and trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average.  It is sometimes a leader so I'll be keeping my eye on that.  But I do feel as though the tone of the market has changed after Monday.  I'll be looking to short any SPY rally if we get one.  I'm also considering sitting on the sidelines until there is a decent technical signal as well.  It's been a rough first half of the trading year for me.  Sometimes a break is what's needed to have a better frame of mind for the trading endeavor.  At least my trading management has come around but booking small losses still adds up.  For now I'm probably going to let this week go by before considering the next SPY trade.  Next week will have the July 4th holiday smack in the middle.  The usual time around July 4th is normally bullish for the market.  Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

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