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Thursday, June 21, 2018

The Dow continued its losing streak today, dropping yet another 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This will move the summation index lower.  The overall market was weak today along with the Dow.  It seems as if now the buyers have stepped back.  Where previously we had no sellers, we now have no buyers.  That said, some of my short term technical indicators are now oversold and I did adjust my open order for the SPY July calls today so it would get filled.  They are showing a slight profit.  We are overdue for at least a short term bounce in the indices.  I'm not sure that we'll get much more than that but perhaps the summer rally will begin.  Unless the market is about to simply fall out of bed here, I feel pretty good about the odds for success with this trade.  GE dropped over an 1/8 on good volume.  We are about to break the near term support here.  Gold was off $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU had a slight fractional loss, while GDX was unchanged on very light volume.  There's no interest in the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm now in the next trade.  I did not expect to get involved this early in the expiration schedule but I think the opportunity is now.  I do not expect to hold on to this trade that long because the market action here to me is peculiar.  The Dow is very short term oversold here and hasn't been positive for eight days in a row.  But with the small stocks not participating in the decline yet, I feel as though the overall bullish bias remains intact.  The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are not completely oversold but they are in the area that has turned things around recently.  If that is the case again this time around, this trade should be profitable.  But with the stock market, you never know.  The market has a mind of its own.  However I do believe that the odds are in my favor for this particular trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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