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Monday, June 25, 2018

The market got clobbered today but did manage to finish off of the lows.  The Dow fell 328 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We were off close to 500 points during the session.  Trade tariffs will be the convenient excuse but it's more than that.  The Dow has been down for 9 of the last 10 trading days.  That says something and it isn't positive.  My original thesis of the market reaching its top in January will hold true for the big caps.  I don't see them coming back to new all time highs this year.  The S&P 500 is oversold now for the short term.  The short term technical indicators for the small stocks have rolled over.  I'm not exactly sure what the story is here but rallies can now be shorted in my opinion.  GE was off almost 1/3 on good volume.  Gold and the US dollar were both slightly lower.  The XAU fell 1 1/2 while GDX was off fractionally.  Volume was light.  Oversold for the gold shares and I'm looking at the longer term calls still.  Haven't made up my mind on whether this is a viable trading idea yet or not.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I got stopped out of my SPY July call trade early this morning for a 30% loss.  I can deal with that because without the stop loss order the pain would have been worse.  Once again my trading in the SPY remains terrible.  Perhaps a vacation from that is in the cards going forward.  We should see an oversold bounce here soon.  The quality and duration of the bounce will tell us a lot about the markets overall condition.  So we'll see.  When the market starts to act like it did today, caution is advised.  The VIX surged to almost 20 and that is the highest reading since early April.  Whether or not it has more to go, I don't know.  Where the market goes from here, I don't know.  We do have the end of the month coming on Friday.  There's also a few readings on the economy due out as well.  We're obviously oversold here and some kind of bounce is due.  Asia and Europe were both lower as well.  It seemed like a worldwide retreat from stocks on Monday.  So we'll see where we go tomorrow.     

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