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Wednesday, June 06, 2018

The Dow powered ahead today and roared higher by 346 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were once again just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  It appears that the summer rally has begun early.  All signs seem to point to even higher prices going forward.  Perhaps we will just run things up into the expiration next week.  My SPY June put order was filled.  Shortly thereafter the market began to move up.  I decided to sell that order right back for about a 15% loss and move on to a higher strike price, which I did.  That trade is now showing a loss.  It really looks like this is the wrong idea overall.  The Dow was much stronger than the overall market but that doesn't seem to matter.  We're still overbought and staying there for most of the major stock indices.  The VIX is now below 12, which is a new low since the decline earlier this year.  Small stocks indexes are setting new all time highs.  Perhaps all the bullishness in the media is actually warranted.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  For some reason GE is not participating in the rally.  Gold finished the day little changed as the US dollar lost a little ground.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The yield on TNX rose.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm back in the next trade but now feel as if I maybe should have just stepped aside from this SPY put idea.  I at least bailed out of the first trade right away, which now appears to be the right move.  However backing that up by trying to move up to a higher strike price doesn't look like it's going to work.  There's still 7 days to go in the June option cycle but at the rate we're climbing it won't matter.  We'll see how the rest of the week goes but I don't anticipate any kind of turnaround in this environment.  But the market does go where it wants and we won't stay overbought forever, will we?  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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