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Monday, June 18, 2018

Lower to begin the week for the Dow as it lost 103 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We started off lower for all the major stock indices today but there was buying throughout the session.  Trade war talk over the weekend contributed to the selling in my mind.  The NASDAQ made it all the way back to the black.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the Dow but not the small stocks.  RUT set another new all time high today.  I'm still in favor of higher prices going forward for now.  But we are way overdue for some type of sustained decline.  GE dropped a dime on average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  $1280 is an important level for gold.  If we don't hold up here perhaps the 200 day moving average at $1235 will hold.  But we haven't broken $1280 yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  We've made it through the June option expiration.  We've rolled into the July option cycle but the premiums are extremely high.  I'm going to have to wait for a decent signal before attempting the next SPY trade.  The overbought condition is keeping me from attempting the calls here.  However I haven't been successful lately with the SPY puts.  So on it goes.  I'd expect the summer doldrums to turn up at any time as well.  So for now I'm going to watch and wait.  We've got the Fed head in a panel discussion on Wednesday so that may move things one way or the other.  Not much on the economic data this week.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight.  

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