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Friday, June 08, 2018

The market continues to climb as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  No news or data to really speak of but the sellers have vanished.  I got stopped out of my SPY June put trade for a 35% loss.  I didn't want to get stopped out before the weekend but the market goes where it wants.  That makes it two losing trades this week as my ideas are going nowhere.  Will I try this trade again next week?  I'm not exactly sure at this point.  It just isn't working as we have remained short term overbought for days.  At the rate I'm going when it finally does work I'll be owning the SPY calls.  My confidence obviously isn't where it needs to be.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  No trades in mind here.  Gold was flat and the US dollar edged a little higher.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the loss.  At least I get the management of the trade correct again by sticking with a stop loss after the fill.  It's been a horrendous first half of the year so far for my in the trading department.  Yet I'm still here thinking about trying the SPY June puts again if we get to 2800 on the S&P.  However with the weekend upon us, I may simply have to take a step back and hit the sidelines next week.  Julys option cycle has an extra month, so the premiums will be high.  I am still considering the longer term gold share calls.  Perhaps next week after the Fed will be the time to try that idea.  But that's just a guess at this point.  The small stocks are still leading the way here and as long as that's the case I suppose long is the only way to go.  Why I haven't listened to that, I don't know.  Some of the small stock technical indicators have been overbought for a month.  So I do think that some type of drop is imminent.  But will it be next week?  It would have the positive expiration bias to fight for one thing.  We've got the US/North Korea summit on the geo-political front to deal with.  Also the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Inflation numbers and retail sales as well.  So there will be opportunities for short term trading to be sure.  Unfortunately for me, the short term trading is not where I do well.  I've got that to deal with as well.  So perhaps the sidelines is where I'm headed but you don't make any money there.  But you don't lose any either.  I'll consider the choices over the weekend.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight as the discord of the weekends G-7 meetings took center stage overseas.  The US market was able to ignore it after the futures sold off overnight.  There are no sellers for now.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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