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Friday, June 29, 2018

The Dow managed to hold on to a gain of 55 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The market dropped in the final hour to erase much of the days gains.  We were up close to 300 points on the Dow early on.  The price action has been sloppy lately.  The VIX remains above the 15 level and that spells volatility.  Perhaps today was the day to try the SPY July puts.  Next week would ordinarily be slow with a positive 4th of July holiday bias.  But with the market acting weak lately I suppose anything can happen.  GE was off about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold was only up a few bucks despite a big drop in the US dollar.  The gold shares perked up though.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was good.  Was it the end of the quarter or month type of buying or is this the beginning of what I am looking for?  I'll be keeping a closer eye on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain oversold.  We have yet to see any sustained bounce upwards.  I'll be looking for some upside before trying the SPY July puts.  We still have 3 weeks left in the July option cycle so there is plenty of time to attempt a trade.  I'm inclined to just let next week go by but we'll have to see how things go.  The trading is never easy.  There's also the possibility that the summer doldrums show up and that is not the type of environment that enhances speculative trading.  So we'll see.  For now I'll check the charts over the weekend and try and come up with a game plan going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in overnight trade.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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