A sell off and a comeback today as the Dow fell 23 points on good volume again.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  We were off almost 150 in the morning but buyers stepped in.  My open order for the SPY May calls wasn't filled but it did get close.  I've adjusted the order for overnight but it's possible that the opportunity is gone.  The Dow did bounce off of its 50 day moving average.  The market has repeatedly tried to sell off but has made a comeback each time.  Sooner or later this pattern won't hold up but it has so far.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  If we could put in a bottom here it would be overall constructive in my opinion.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX gained almost 1/2.  Volume was better.  I don't think that this is the start of a new trend but what do I know?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Running out of time in the May option cycle.  However I'm still willing to attempt a SPY May call trade under the right circumstances.  We'll get more inflation data and retail sales data tomorrow morning.  If we see another sell off, there's a chance that my open order could get filled.  I'm also looking for the usual positive expiration week bias to show up next week.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over and that may be a concern.  The price action in the next couple of days will tell us if it's for real or not.  I don't believe that it is just yet.  The small caps continue to hold up well and out perform the overall market.  As long as that's the case I can't get too bearish.  But that could all change at any time.  For now however, I'm going to continue to look for higher prices.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow.   

More of the same here for the market as the Dow fell 32 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Basically moving sideways in the S&P 500 for 2 1/2 weeks.  Indicators remain overbought and staying that way.  I did place an overnight order for some SPY May calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  Sooner or later we'll get some kind of breakout.  The question remains, in which direction.  I'm still looking for an upside resolution.  GE was off 1/4 on what passes now for average volume here.  We're still oversold here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/3 and GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Running out of time in the May option cycle.  The timing of any trade from here on out would have to be impeccable.  It can be done but you've got to have the market cooperate as well.  If we get some pullback, I'd be willing to go the other way with the calls.  If we start to rally, there is not overhead resistance so purchasing some puts would be even riskier that usual.  Not to mention the running out of time factor.  Volatility seems to have disappeared and the lack of price movement is frustrating.  So I do think that the prudent course of action remains to wait for a decent set up and go from there if we get one.  If we don't, I'll simply have to wait for the June option cycle.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Another day of not much but there was a little volatility in the final hour.  The Dow fell 36 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  Another down day would change that.  Nothing new to report.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages remain overbought.  I still favor the SPY May calls between now and expiration.  If we drift lower in the next couple of days, I'll give that trade a shot.  Until that happens it's just a wait and see attitude.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Oversold here for GE.  Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar rose again.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares haven't followed gold lower here in the past couple of days.  Perhaps things will turn around soon.  But that's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow today and that's a plus.  But the overall lack of movement in the major averages is not helping the trading.  It's great if you're a writer of options but not if you are looking for gains on directional movement.  I'm going to try not to press the issue here but I would still like to do a trade if the conditions set up properly.  No guarantees that will happen.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 5 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The market tried to sell off today but could not.  The RUT is under performing here and that is a concern.  The TRAN lagged as well.  However I would still like to try the SPY May calls if we get some kind of pullback this week.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages remain overbought.  I can only watch and wait at this point with only 9 days left in the May option cycle.  I do still favor an upside breakout from these levels.  GE was off 1/8 or so on light volume.  Gold finished flat on the session and well off of its highs.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved and the volume was extremely light.  Obviously no interest here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I am going to try and not press things here as the May option cycle is running out of time.  There is however, enough time for a decent signal to materialize.  We got the French election out of the way and there is some economic data due out later this week on inflation plus retail sales.  So we'll see where things go from here.  Volatility is extremely low and that won't last forever.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Moving higher today as the Dow rose 55 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The S&P 500 hit a new all time high.  The summation index is trying to move back up.  The employment report was a bit better than expected but the market didn't really get going to the upside until midway through the session.  Short term overbought now for the S&P but it's been that was for days.  I canceled my open order for the SPY May calls as we didn't get any downside to get it filled.  It appears that this trade has passed me by.  I do not think it would be a good idea to chase it now.  I do expect higher prices early next week though.  If we do see some selling, I may try it again.  But for now it looks like missed opportunity.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was really light.  The gold futures were up a buck and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX added almost 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two weeks left in the May option cycle and it doesn't look like I'll get a set up for a trade.  The next logical way to go would be the SPY puts if we continue higher.  Which I think that we will.  There isn't any overhead resistance for the S&P 500.  There was plenty of chances over the past week for the market to drop but it simply trended sideways.  We have now broken out to higher prices.  The French election is on Sunday but the result really isn't in doubt.  It is probably already baked into the market.  I'm not sure what the catalyst will be to get things moving next week.  The employment report certainly didn't lead to the volatility that it normally would.  I still think that we're heading higher and the Dow should hit a new all time high next week as well.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to see if there is any trade that I can do next week.  However there isn't a set up as of now and I do expect higher prices in the beginning of the week.  Perhaps a fade of that will be the play.  We'll see.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed once again.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow lost 6 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index has turned around and is now moving lower.  We did have a midday sell off when oil dropped but the stock market recovered.  The overall market was just a bit stronger than the Dow.  Good volume lately but no movement for the major stock indices.  I'm not exactly sure what that means but I'm still looking for a positive resolution to the sideways movement we've seen lately.  I've left in my open order for the SPY May calls.  Perhaps tomorrows employment report will get things going one way or the other.  GE was off a few cents.  The short term technical indicators here are oversold.  Gold continues to fall as the futures dropped $20 today.  The US dollar fell as well.  The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Not sure what is happening with gold but commodities in general are falling.  Weakness in oil doesn't help gold either.  With both gold and the dollar dropping something has to give soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a bit of weakness in the small stocks with the exception of RUT which has rolled over.  The technical indicators for RUT are mid-range.  Like I said before, RUT led us up and now we will have to see if it will lead us down.  My feeling is that the market is on the verge of something here.  I'm still looking for new all time highs.  However with the summation index now moving down, you can make a case for lower prices.  But if the market starts to take off on the jobs report, I may just have to get in and follow.  We'll see.  I probably should wait for a decent signal though and the short term technical indicators for the S&P remain overbought.  They have stayed that way for a few days and we haven't seen the usual upward price movement.  The trading is never easy.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll be on the lookout for the jobs numbers and close out the week tomorrow.  

A one day reversal to the upside for the Dow as we opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow edged up 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is barely moving up.  The small stocks are now showing relative weakness instead of strength.  The short term indicators for RUT have rolled over to the downside.  RUT led us higher.  Is it about to lead us lower?  We've had good volume lately and have only been able to move sideways.  Is that a concern going forward?  It could be.  I still have the open order in for the May SPY calls.  The Fed came and went today and it was the expected non affair.  Next up is Fridays employment report.  GE showed some life and was up 1/4.  Volume was nothing special.  Gold dropped $17 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  We are back to no love for gold and that could accelerate with a strong jobs report.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just about 2 weeks to go in the May option cycle.  I'm still looking for new all time highs for the S&P 500 before expiration but there are some warning signs starting to appear.  The under performance of the small stocks recently being a concern.  Not to mention that the short term technical indicators for the S&P remain overbought with any upside movement in the index.  Could the stock market roll over here?  Perhaps.  Sometimes the month of May can be negative.  But I do still think that this is a pause near the all time highs for the Dow and the S&P before we break out to new highs.  But the longer the small stocks lag, the less likely that outcome becomes a possibility.  So keeping an eye on things is as important as ever.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night.  I expect tomorrow to be a wait and see session before the data on Friday.  We'll keep an eye on things.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 36 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow for a change.  The summation index continues higher.  Still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  I did place an open order for the SPY May calls and left it in overnight.  We'll have to see some decline for it to get filled though.  We've got earnings from Apple tonight and Facebook tomorrow.  They probably will be market movers.  Also we'll get the Fed statement tomorrow but I do not think that it will have much effect but I could be wrong.  There's no expected change in policy forthcoming.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was a little better.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've been moving sideways for a week now right at the overhead resistance.  I really believe that we'll be breaking through to new all time highs in the coming days.  Once we get through, there won't be any resistance left.  Sometimes markets can remain overbought for quite some time.  My guess is that we are in one of those times now.  I could be wrong.  However I am leaving the order for the SPY May calls out there.  Ideally we'd see weakness ahead of the jobs report on Friday and then a rally to new all time highs on the reaction to the data.  Things don't always go as planned in this game though.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight developments.   

The Dow hung around in positive territory all day but then dropped in the final half hour.  the most watched index fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks are leading the way and as long as that's the case we'll be heading up.  The S&P stalled at the near term resistance again but I do believe that it will be overcome soon.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for most of the major stock indices.  They can remain that way during a rally.  We've got the Fed this week but it should prove to be a non event.  GE was off a nickel and the volume is light.  Gold was off $10 on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was OK.  Gold and the gold shares are back on the decline.  We'll have to see if they can hold the recent lows.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit out of sorts.  Email problems on  my end but they'll eventually get resolved.  I'd still like to try and find a way to get long here but will need to see some kind of short term decline.  It may not happen.  How ever I am firm in waiting for a decent signal because there is still plenty of time to go in the May option cycle.  We've got the jobs report out on Friday as well and that could be a mover.  The ideal scenario is a decline into Wednesday to give me a chance at the SPY May calls.  That's the idea at the moment.  Today was somewhat a partial holiday in the world markets with the May Day celebrations.  Foreign markets were quiet.  Things will be back at full strength tomorrow.

Some selling to close out the month of April as the Dow fell 40 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  GDP was just a bit light of expectations.  We did open higher and close lower once again.  I don't think that we're running out of steam here, just moving sideways after the huge run up.  I did cancel my open order for the SPY May calls to get out before the weekend.  I'll be placing that trade again next week.  I still expect a break higher to new all time highs sooner rather than later.  GE was lower by a dime but the volume was pretty light.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit lower but did come off of its lows for the session.  The XAU added 2 points, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short term overbought for all the major stock indices with the exception of the TRAN.  RUT had a weak session but we'll have to see if that was just the end of the month squaring.  The small stocks continue to lead the way but perhaps they need a sideways rest as well.  May sometimes isn't the best month for stocks, so I'll have to tread carefully if I do attempt a trade for the SPY calls.  I'd prefer to see weakness in the beginning of the week and that would set me up for a long trade.  But as you know the market rarely cooperates.  I'm in a better mental state of mind now so perhaps I'll be able to make the proper decisions.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend to be ready for a fresh trading week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

A day of hanging around as the Dow rose 6 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index is moving up.  The McClellan oscillator did give a signal yesterday for a big move in the next couple of sessions, so we will have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  Perhaps the market will move on the GDP report.  I'm still looking for new all time highs in the Dow and S&P 500 before expiration.  I adjusted the open order that I have for the SPY May calls.  I think that next week around Wednesday would probably be the ideal time to enter this trade if the market cooperates.  But if it gets filled before that, I still think that it will work.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow as well.  GE dropped around 20 cents again on good volume.  The lack of upside for GE would normally be a problem for the market but it has been ignoring this so far.  It is something to keep an eye on.  Gold was little changed on the day and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU shed 2 1/4 and GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still short term overbought on the technical indicators for the S&P and it is touching the upper Bollinger band.  However in rallies we can stay overbought for quite some time.  That is what I think we are seeing here.  The best case scenario from here would be a sideways consolidation into the middle of next week and then another leg higher.  That would let some time premium get sucked out of the SPY May options and perhaps give me the opportunity to take a position.  The small stocks remain strong here and that is a positive going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.  

A one day reversal to the downside as we opened higher and closed lower.  Perhaps it was a sell on the news of the Trump tax plan.  The plan is actually only an outline and we don't really know what will pass in Congress to become law.  The Dow fell 21 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Certainly a pause is due after climbing 450 points in just two sessions.  Not to mention that we have arrived at the overhead resistance of the previous all time highs for the Dow and the S&P.  So some hesitation here isn't the end of the world.  I did place an open order for some SPY May calls and I'm leaving it in overnight.  It's my belief that this rally has plenty more to go on the upside and that new all time highs are coming.  GE lost about 20 cents on heavy volume.  GE is oversold on the short term technical indicators but hasn't participated in the rally since the beginning of December.  Gold was slightly higher as was the US dollar.  The XAU was up almost a point, while GDX barely moved.  Volume was good.  The gold shares did come off of the lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has dropped here as well and I do believe that will help support higher prices going forward.  The small stocks continue to be leaders and that is a positive as well.  Perhaps some backing and filling here and then a move to new all time highs.  I will try and get some SPY May calls before we break out but the premiums are still high.  Timing of this trade will be important once again as usual.  I do think that this is one of those times where it will pay to chase the move higher.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.  We're short term overbought but will probably stay that way for a while as we move higher.  Europe and Asia were both generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the news tonight. 

Up we go as the Dow roared ahead by 232 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index is moving higher.  We are on our way to new all time highs for the major indices in my opinion.  I do think that you can just buy some index calls even though we're overbought.  The market will most likely stay overbought as we trend higher.  I'm thinking about placing an open order for some SPY calls tomorrow with a good until canceled stamp on the ticket.  I would like to wait for a pullback but at this rate we won't see one.  We'll get an outline of the Trump tax proposals tomorrow and that should provide more fuel for the rally.  GE lost a dime on good volume.  This stock certainly isn't participating in the rise.  I'm not sure if that is a problem or not.  Gold fell another dozen on the futures, with the dollar lower again as well.  The XAU lost 3 and GDX dropped a point on very heavy volume.  Poor earnings form ABX was the cause.  Not to mention that the long term down trend line at $1300 turned down prices again for gold.  We've entered the 5th year of the bear market for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We closed above 6000 for the first time on the NASDAQ.  RUT is trying to break out.  The small stocks are leading the way and that is bullish.  Plenty of time in the May option cycle for a call trade to still work despite the impressive run up of the past two sessions.  Those are some of my thoughts on what is going on anyway.  I haven't had a good handle on things lately but what we are seeing now looks a lot like the two run ups we've had after the US elections in November.  The market took off each time and did not look back.  I could be wrong but I still feel that calls will work for the May option cycle.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight but not as much as the US was today.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Markets rallied around the world on the French election results.  The Dow gained 216 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index higher.  The S&P 500 has moved above the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of March on good volume.  Any weakness can be bought in my humble opinion.  The May option premiums are high though, with so much time left before expiration.  But the trend should be higher from here.  The VIX has moved way back down as well.  The small stocks continue to act well.  The NASDAQ is at a new all time high.  We should see new highs in the S&P and the Dow off of this move.  GE was flat on the session with heavy volume.  Here's a stock that certainly did not participate in todays rally.  Gold dropped as well as the fear factor was lifted for a day.  The precious metal futures dropped a dozen despite a decent loss in the US dollar as well.  The XAU fell 1 3/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  We still need a high volume break to the upside at the $1300 level for gold to look constructive.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm really just considering to buy some SPY calls here just to get on board.  Sometimes when the market gets going it just doesn't look back.  We could be at one of those junctures right now.  If the market likes Trumps tax plan on Wednesday, it could be off to the races again.  Even if none of it actually comes to pass.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned up and have room to run higher.  I'll check the SPY May option prices again tonight but they are rather pricey.  But there will be no money made if you don't have a position.  So we'll see.  Asia was higher but Europe really took off to the upside last night.  We'll see if we get any follow through and we should.  I've just seen that Trump is proposing cutting the corporate tax rate to 15%.  That is bullish for now but my guess is that it will probably be negotiated up from there.  I really think that you need to be long here somehow.  Stay tuned.

We finished off the week with a thud as the Dow fell 31 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We bounced around all day with the overall market a bit weaker than the Dow.  We're still trying to make up our mind what to do here.  The VIX may be trying to turn back up here and that would be a negative.  My story remains the same.  I don't have a good signal one way or the other.  Plus my read of the market here lately has been wrong.  I'm on the sidelines until I get a better idea of what to do.  GE got clobbered today, off 3/4 on very heavy volume.  So much for GE perhaps leading the way higher.  The earnings were in line with estimates but the stock still got sold off.  Gold and the US dollar were both up slightly.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are moving on to the May option cycle.  The major stock indices are not in sync at the moment.  The small stocks are still leading the way though and that is a plus.  The short term technical indicators there are getting overbought.  The big cap indicators are mid-range.  The VIX could go either way here but has at least rolled over for now.  With mixed signals like these, I will have to wait it out for now.  Perhaps over the weekend I can find some clues on what to do.  But for now it's the sidelines as the best choice for me.  I've put aside the last debacle of a trade but I still need to see some type of signal before attempting the next one.  At least that's the plan for now.  The major foreign markets have been weak of late so maybe it's time for them to turn around after the French election on Sunday.  That's just a guess as usual.  Asia was a bit higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  I'll be checking the charts over the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up and down we go as the market is trying to figure out what to do here.  The Dow gained 174 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways but another day like today would change that.  The small stocks are still acting good here so I'm still in the bullish camp going forward.  I would like to purchase some SPY May calls at some point.  Yes, I'm still looking for new all time highs if this is the beginning of the next leg up.  That however, remains to be seen.  GE was up 1/4 and volume was good.  Perhaps the recent rise in GE is a clue as to where the overall market is headed.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed for the day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has returned and that has increased the price of the option premiums for now.  There is also plenty of time left in the May cycle as it really begins on Monday.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range at the moment.  I do not have any clear signals from my own indicators.  So it's a time to wait.  I'll let the expiration go by tomorrow and then assess the situation from there.  Both Europe and Asia were positive last night.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

Opening higher and closing lower as the Dow fell 118 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in positive territory.  The summation index is trending sideways.  As I've said before I can't quite make out what is going on here.  However with the small stocks acting well, I don't think that we're on the verge of any major breakdown.  I'm still looking at the May SPY calls.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  No trades in mind here.  Gold shed over $10 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU lost 2 7/8, while GDX dropped 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  Gold is at some long term resistance here and a pullback isn't out of the question.  If gold can get through the $1300 level on good volume the picture would turn very positive in my view.  But that remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The big cap indices have been slowly trending lower since the start of March.  I'm still thinking that this is simply a long consolidation before we attempt new all time highs again.  There isn't much else to report.  The Fed minutes came and went.  The usual positive option expiration week bias didn't last.  Perhaps the bounce on Tuesday was a chance to get short.  But I have to believe that any decline will be short lived.  The major indices are not in sync, therefore it appears to be more consolidation in my view.  I'm going to wait for a clear signal and go from there.  Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on overnight developments.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is now trending sideways.  No follow through to yesterdays gains as the day began with a gap to the downside.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow so I'm still in the bullish camp for now.  But I have to admit that I do not have a good idea of what is going on here.  The sidelines seem to be the safest place for me at the moment.  The RUT is holding up for now above the 1340 level.  As long as that holds, I'm still going to look for higher prices going forward.  GE was up 20 cents on average volume.  Gold was flat on the day despite the US dollar getting crushed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  The lack of movement in gold and the gold shares isn't positive with the drop in the dollar.  We should have seen some gains for the precious metal.  Mentally I'm again feeling a bit tired.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are oversold but not completely.  We do have the Bollinger bands converging which implies a big move one way or the other coming up.  My thinking is that the sideways price activity that we've seen for the past month and a half is a consolidation before we head higher.  If not we have built a pretty good top and prices should fall quickly.  The recent action in the VIX indicators points to a rally coming.  However as always, the market goes where it wants.  We could turn those indicators around and the market could fall but the odds favor the opposite.  We've got the Fed minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  It's also earnings season and anything goes there.  It's a time to pay attention perhaps a bit more than usual.  But like I said, I don't have a clear idea of what's going on.  Asia was mixed with Europe lower once again.  Europe could be moving in anticipation of the French election coming this weekend.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

We had a gap to the upside to start the day and the market never looked back.  The Dow gained 183 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to the upside.  After Fridays action we did have both short and medium term buy signals on a couple of my indicators.  I did place an order for the SPY April calls this morning but there was no pullback and it wasn't filled.  Today was the type of day I was looking for last week.  But what can you do?  It is frustrating sometimes though.  The volume is light but I do believe that this is the beginning of something that will take us to new all time highs.  I'll now look to the SPY May calls for the next trade.  GE was up 8 cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar finished a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed on light volume for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Some buyers showed up today and I'm sure we saw some short covering as well.  The VIX got to the overbought level where reversals take place.  We saw all of that today.  It's also options expiration week and the positive bias should be in effect.  Declines can be purchased in my opinion.  The only thing that would change my mind is if we're down tomorrow as much as we went up today.  I do not expect that to happen despite the light volume today.  I always say that light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  So we'll see how it goes tomorrow.  After last weeks debacle of a trade, I'm trying to stay positive and on an even keel.  We'll see how that goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on the developments tonight.  

The market continues to drop here as the Dow fell 138 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  I'm not sure what is going on here.  I now have solid buy signals on a couple of my indicators.  However the market has the feel of wanting to fall apart here.  We are however, not in a crash zone on the summation index.  My weekly SPY April call trade was a 100% loser.  That is ridiculous.  I was so certain that we'd see some upside that I never even put in a stop loss order.  Unacceptable.  Not to mention that the entry was wrong and we are in a holiday week.  I don't know what I was thinking but it was all wrong.  Today I actually placed another order for the SPY April calls but later canceled it.  Some of my technical indicators are in the buy zone both short and medium term.  But I really have to think about what is going on here and I do not want to make a trade to just try and make back what I just lost.  I'll consider what to do over the weekend.  GE was off 20 cents and the volume was light.  The daily technical indicators have rolled over here.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower but came up from the lows of the day.  It appears like a flight to safety is in order as the US has just dropped some kind of huge bomb on Afghanistan.  But the gold shares were quiet as the XAU and GDX finished the session little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting markets as it looks like we are about to drop below the support of a trading range that has been in effect for weeks on some of the major indices.  Some of the technical indicators are not completely oversold so there is a chance that we are going to see some extended decline after a bounce.  That's my guess at the moment but my take on things here is shaky at best..  My own indicators indicate that upside is due.  The VIX indicators are in the area where at least a bounce is seen.  I will really have to consider getting long on weakness Monday morning.  However my confidence isn't exactly in a good place after the last trade.  I also don't want to compound the recent loss with another negative trade.  But it does look like an opportunity here for me, if I can manage it properly.  That remains to be seen.  It seems like there just were not any buyers this week, for whatever reasons.  Geo-political concerns are in the forefront as well.  I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and try and decide what to do.  Also the sooner I put the losing trade behind me, the better my mind will be at trying to figure out where to go next.  The game is never easy and the battle with myself never ends.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe was red across the board.  Plenty to ponder in the next 3 days.  For now it's Thursday afternoon and a long weekend break is upon us.

Heading lower as the Dow fell 59 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up but prices are not.  I don't know what to make of that.  My weekly SPY April calls are dead.  The upside I expected never materialized and is long overdue.  I will try and sell these tomorrow if possible if we get a pop at the open.  But they will be 90% or more losers.  Bad entry and trying the weekly options again was the wrong idea.  I should have cut the loss right away but expected at least some upside this week.  It never happened.  My read on things here is wrong and I'll have to return to the sidelines I suppose.  I still think that yesterdays low should be some type of bottom here.  GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up a little going lower.  Gold was up a bit again on the futures as the US dollar fell almost 1/2.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Way overdue for some type of bounce here in my opinion.  I'm not saying that it would be the start of another leg up but we are at a point where at least some upside should have occurred.  But as usual the market goes where it wants.  Light volume and no interest is not the best trading environment.  The buyers have disappeared.  After yesterdays comeback to almost unchanged, I expected some follow through to the upside.  It didn't happen.  My management of this trade has been awful.  It's a step backwards really.  If I had some more confidence, I would purchase some SPY April calls that expire next Friday.  But the prudent thing for me to do here is sit things out until the next valid signal comes around.  The SPY trade that I did this week did not fit those parameters.  I think it was more of a case of me wanting to do something rather than wait for a decent set up.  That's on me.  The toughest battle for me in the game is always against myself.  So where do we go from here?  The VIX is overbought and at levels where we should see some type of move higher in equity prices.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over.  They are  not oversold at the moment.  So it is a mixed picture at best.  With the lack of participation lately, sitting out for a while is the course that I will probably take.  I'll book the loss tomorrow and then try to collect my thoughts over the long weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

Volatility returns but the Dow made yet another comeback.  The most watched index was off almost 150 points in the morning and finished the day with a loss of 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving higher but prices are not.  My weekly SPY April calls are in the red with only 2 days to go.  It is a cut the loss trade at this point.  I still expect some strength here in the next couple of sessions but it probably won't be enough to save this trade.  This morning was the time to try the SPY April calls.  Retrospect is always on time.  The VIX shot up to its highest level this year today.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold found a bid as the futures rallied over $20.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU jumped 2 1/3, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was good to the upside.  Lower yields combined with geo-political tensions were the main drivers.  I'm not sure how long that will last.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm once again not exactly sure of what to make of the good breadth without the corresponding upward move in price.  The RUT is acting well here and that is bullish in my book.  However the light volume remains a concern but that may be due to a holiday week and spring break.  That also could be the reason for the pick up in volatility but that's a guess as usual.  The upside that I was looking for is overdue so I expect a positive day either tomorrow or Thursday.  I'd be very surprised if we simply continued lower.  But I also have to admit that my take on things here isn't exactly clear.  I'm also wondering if I simply put on this SPY trade because I wanted to do something before the expiration.  The signal wasn't exactly the best.  It doesn't matter now as I have to get out of this trade now with the least possible damage.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see if we get some kind of bounce in the US trading on Wednesday.

The Dow bounced around today and finished with a gain of a little more than a point on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  We opened to the upside and then gave it all back and then some.  Rallied good again and lost it all into the close.  I had an open order in for the weekly SPY calls this morning and it was filled on the first drop of the session.  The entry was not good.  When I realized that the drop was going to be more than I expected it was too late.  This is a very risky trade that lasts until the close on Thursday.  It is showing a loss and I will be lucky to get out with any type of gain.  That said, my work does show that there will be upside this week.  However it may be too late to save this trade.  GE lost a couple cents and the volume remains very light.  Gold lost a buck or so on the futures despite a lower US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Good breadth today with no gain and that could be a problem.  The lack of volume isn't helping matters for the bulls either.  Volatility has returned for todays session.  I'm in the next trade now and it really isn't the best set of circumstances.  The technical indicators remain mid-range and the basically sideways market price action continues.  I don't expect a major decline to start here.  If my entry would have been decent then this trade would be in a better position for success.  But we will have to go from here and work with what we've got.  Not a lot of economic data due with retail sales the most important for the week in my view.  However that will be released on Friday and the markets will be closed.  I'd like to hold this trade until Thursday but we will have to simply see what happens.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Plenty of pre-market drama but when it was all said and done it was a day of market drift.  The Dow fell 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is barely moving higher.  We had the US bombing Syria overnight and then a weaker than expected jobs report.  However the expected volatility never happened as we traded in a small range all day.  We now have geo-political risk to contend with along with the usual market risks.  So it definitely makes for even tougher trading as headline risk has returned.  The technical indicators are not even moving as they remain mid-range.  I did place another order for the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled.  I suppose I'll try again on Monday depending on how things look over the weekend.  GE was up a few cents on very light volume.  Gold rallied early on but then gave it all back and then some.  The futures finished up 3 bucks but were much higher than that.  The US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX came off their highs for slight losses.  Volume was average.  Hard to figure exactly what was going on there.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The market is trending sideways for now and that isn't a good sign for trading options.  The light volume also is a factor.  It implies a lack of interest as we are now in an aimless drift.  2 weeks to go in the April option cycle and I would like to try something.  But we have a lot of premium left in option prices for the April cycle.  As the days go by more time and volatility premium gets sucked out of the options and we have no real volatility at the moment.  The one day reversal lower that we had this week juiced up the volatility premium and now that is being frittered away with each passing day.  So the game gets tougher to put something profitable together.  I'm still in the bullish camp but that could change in a hurry with headline risk.  The employment report did not have its usual effect on the market today as traders simply pulled back on doing anything after last night.  Perhaps I'll have to skip the April option cycle but that remains to be seen.  I'll check all the charts in the next 2 days and try to come up with a definite plan for next week.  It will be a short week due to a holiday on Friday.  Plenty to think about.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow managed a 14 point gain today on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive though and that should turn the summation index back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  I did place an order for the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled.  I might try this again tomorrow but we'll have to wait and see.  The RUT held up well today and if we can get leadership there, the market should be OK.  All eyes will be on the employment report but as always the markets reaction to the numbers is the key.  I still believe that we're going to go higher before the April expiration but there really isn't a clear signal technically.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were barely changed on pretty light volume.  It's been quiet lately for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Trying to put a trade on here has kept me busy.  I almost wanted to chase things again today when we were up a point on the SPY but I didn't.  There is still a lot of time premium left in the April options.  Plus some extra volatility premium in there after yesterday.  So the entry timing has got to be spot on for any trade to have a chance.  Those premiums will get sucked out rather quickly as the next couple of weeks go by.  We're still only mid-range on the short term indicators.  However todays very positive advance/declines tells me we are probably headed higher.  That's my guess at the moment.  I'll wait and see how the market opens tomorrow and decide what to do from there.  Perhaps I'll get a chance for the April calls.  We'll see.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher last night.  We'll finish out the week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow had an upside gap open and then closed lower for the day.  The most watched index fell 41 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This will halt the rise in the summation index but I don't think it's turned lower yet.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that is a warning sign.  I think that if the RUT breaks and closes below 1340 that the tone and the trend will turn negative.  The Dow could not hold an almost 200 point gain from early in the session.  I have no explanation but the excuse is the Fed minutes release.  I did cancel my open order for the SPY April calls but I really almost chased the rally today.  I wanted to simply put in another order because I thought that this was the rise that will take us to new all time highs by expiration.  But I didn't and now I have to reevaluate whether my positive hypothesis for prices is valid.  GE was off a nickel but was much higher during the session.  Volume was light.  Gold was flat on the day and came off of its lows.  The US dollar was flat as well but came off of its highs.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we have to decide if today was a one day wonder or the start of something real to the downside.  The volume was legitimate so it really makes me wonder.  Not to mention that the small stocks are leading the way lower and that is bearish.  The short term technical indicators remain mid-range even with todays price action for the S&P.  So we still are in a zone where it could go either way.  If we get some good downside follow through tomorrow, then I think the market will be in trouble.  As I stated earlier keep an eye on RUT.  It led the way up and now has been moving sideways for 4 months.  If it breaks down I believe the overall market will follow.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I'd still like to think that we're going to head higher.  April is usually a seasonally strong month.  So we'll see.  I'll have to look at the charts tonight and decide whether I'm going to try the SPY April calls again.  Plus we have the employment report out on Friday and now that certainly will be a market mover.  So there is a lot to think about tonight.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the foreign markets react tonight to todays turnaround in the US.  

It seems like a drift here as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I do have an open order in for the SPY April calls but at this rate it won't get filled.  Unknown exactly which way we'll go here but I am still leaning towards a bullish resolution.  However I do not want to chase anything here.  If we get some downside ahead of Friday, I'll try the calls.  If not I'll have to wait for the next signal.  With 2 1/2 weeks to go in the April option cycle, there is still time for a trade.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  The gold futures rose $4 and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU was up a buck, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P here are about mid-range.  Hence the opportunity for the trend to go either way.  We also sometimes just get a sideways market in the month of April and that could be the case as well.  The economic data out so far this week has been in line with estimates.  We'll get the Fed minutes tomorrow and perhaps that will get things going.  But we also could simply be on hold until Fridays jobs report.  Once again I don't want to press or chase things here but I do have the feeling that we are going to take a run at new all time highs.  The overall market is still a bit weaker than the Dow at the moment and that needs to change if we're going to go higher.  Asia was mixed and Europe positive in overnight trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week and the month of April a bit lower as the Dow fell 13 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  It could have been worse as we were off almost 150 during the session.  This Monday looks a lot like last Monday.  The summation index is still moving up.  No clear signal here but I did place an open order for the SPY April calls and I'm leaving it in overnight.  I would like to be long before the employment report due Friday.  However there is a chance that today was the time to purchase the calls.  The ideal scenario from here in my mind would be a drift lower all week into the close on Thursday.  The market rarely cooperates.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold rose a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was nothing special.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Somewhat of a change from the recent behavior as the Dow had better relative performance.  The small stocks under performed today and that is something to keep an eye on.  I'm leaving in the open option order for the calls overnight but if we open down hard again, I'll cancel it.  As I said before, drifting lower for the rest of this week would be the preferred market motion to set up this trade.  So if we can stay in a holding pattern until Friday, there might be a chance for this trade.  If not we'll just have to remain patient and see how things play out.  That's all we can do for now.  Asia was up and Europe down in last nights trade.  We keep an eye on things overnight.

A down day to close out the quarter as the Dow fell 65 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  Positive advance/declines and better relative performance of the small stocks says that the market can go higher.  We might need to take a little breather first.  That's my hope at least because it would then provide the opportunity to purchase the SPY April calls.  One caveat here is that the volume has been pretty weak and you would really like to see that pick up moving higher.  No clear signal one way or the other just yet but the short term technical indicators for the S&P appear to be starting to roll over.  GE lost a few cents but the volume was very heavy.  The gold futures gained a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The month of April has arrived and there are still 3 weeks to go in that option cycle.  The ideal scenario here for me would perhaps be a run down to the 50 day moving average again for the S&P in the near term.  That would set up another chance to purchase some regular index calls.  I do not think that I'll be trying the weekly calls again in the April option cycle.  But the market will go where it wants.  We could also see some beginning of the month money flows and that would limit the near term downside.  The market did drop in the final half hour today but that could have been quarterly related.  Plenty of economic data due out next week topped off by the employment report on Friday.  So there will be a lot to take in as the week goes on.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to see exactly what I can come up with for next week.  For now I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

A drift higher today as the Dow gained 69 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  It appears that I did leave some money on the table by closing out the SPY call trade yesterday but I did not want to take the added risk.  There's still room to move up on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 but the volume here on the rise has been light.  The small stocks didn't outperform today for a change.  I'm still a believer of buying on a pullback for the April option cycle, if we get one.  GE gained 20 cents and the volume was better than what we've seen lately.  We're still below the 200 day moving average here.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll finish out the month tomorrow.  If the S&P continues to rise, we'll get a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart.  This would be a positive for the bulls.  It would also make buying any weakness next week more likely to work.  But it hasn't happened yet.  As it stands this week was a good one if you are positive on stocks.  Perhaps we can make a run at new all time highs next week.  That's just a guess as we will have to wait and see what the market has to say.  For now, waiting for the next signal is the plan.  There's still plenty of time in the April option cycle.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher again overnight.  We'll close out the week and month tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow lost 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  The summation index is now moving up.  All signs point to higher prices coming for stocks.  Weakness can be bought in my opinion and I'll be looking for some SPY April calls.  I did sell the SPY weekly call options that I purchased yesterday.  With only 2 days to go for these calls, I took the profit that I had.  It was 150% but I could have done a little better if I had just sold them at the right point yesterday.  Once again I 've got to emphasize the capital appreciation of option trading vs. trading stocks.  Owning stocks for the long haul is a solid choice.  But when it coming to trading, options should be the vehicle of choice.  You tie up less money for quicker gains with options than by trading stocks.  Today was mostly a sideways affair, so I'll consider myself lucky to get out when I did.  GE was up a few cents and the volume a bit lighter.  Gold was off $3 on the futures and the US dollar gained a bit of ground.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  I gave the SPY weekly options a try and it worked out this time.  But I certainly don't think that this is a strategy that I'll use too often.  Things won't always line up like they just did.  But it will be something to consider in the future.  We got a bounce off the short term oversold technical indicators for the S&P.  Those indicators are now mid-range.  I do think that we're going to go higher from here but there isn't a solid signal right now.  The S&P 500 did manage to hold and bounce off of its 50 day moving average.  The better support is at 2300 but the way things have turned around it appears that we're not headed down there.  I could be wrong but there is no indication to me that's about to occur.  There's still plenty of time in the April option cycle for another trade to line up.  That's what I'll be looking for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

Looking for higher prices and we got them today as the Dow rallied 150 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  I tried to get some SPY April calls but was not filled.  I did however place an order for the SPY weekly call that expires on Friday.  I did this due to the short term nature of the signal that was in place.  That order was filled but I could have done a better job on the entry.  That trade is showing a nice profit for now but it has come well off of its highs for the day.  Last night the McClellan oscillator gave the signal for a significant move in the next 2 sessions.  We got that move today.  I decided to hold on to this trade until tomorrow, since that was the day that my work said would be positive.  Perhaps that was a mistake.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was about average.  Gold lost some steam as the overall stock market moved higher and the futures dropped $5.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX shed almost 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trying a different tack, trading a weekly option.  So far it has worked out OK but anything can happen.  It is a trade that should be exited tomorrow and probably even today.  Once again the short term nature of the position increases the risk rather dramatically.  But I did not like the way the premiums on the regular April options were acting and the signal was in place.  I still like the idea of the SPY April calls but will have to wait for another entry point if we get one.  The turning around of the summation  index is a plus for the bulls.  The small stocks continue to act OK but we could actually be developing a trading channel.  Time will tell on that.  So I'll be keeping an eye on things overnight and take it from there.  We've got the end of the month coming up on Friday as well.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Quite a start to the week as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We opened the day off 175 points on the failure of the health care bill and worked our way back.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  I did place an order to get the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving it open overnight.  We should see some kind of rally from here.  The technical work that I do points to some gains by Wednesday at the latest.  Todays price action also points to higher near term prices.  The small stocks continue to act well here and we probably won't see any wholesale decline as long as that is the case.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was average.  Gold rallied early but came off of its highs.  The precious metal futures rose $7.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired with the early morning gyrations.  The issue that we're having here is that with so much time left in the April option cycle, the huge moves in the price of the indexes is not being reflected in the option premiums.  What I mean is that despite a daily range today of over 2 points in the SPY, the option premiums barely moved.  The loss of time premium seemed to be more of an effect than the price movement in the underlying.  But this is what we deal with when trading the index options.  I still believe that there is a trade to be made here.  I just don't know if it will happen at the price that I'm willing to pay.  It also is a trade that I don't think has a lot of legs.  What I'm saying is that it will be short term in nature if the order gets filled.  Hasn't happened yet.  The VIX came well off of its highs today as well, which tells me that the decline has probably ended for now.  So we'll see.  I do see that higher prices should arrive on Wednesday at the latest.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll watch what happens tonight and be back at it in the morning. 

Volatility returns as the market continues to be held hostage by a health care bill of all things.  We bounced around  and finished with a loss of 59 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks continue to hold up well.  We're short term oversold and I'm leaning towards buying weakness if we get any on Monday morning.  I do not think that we are on the verge of a major pullback even if the vote on this bill isn't approved as the market wants.  Headline risk is a tough trading environment.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was flat on the futures as was the US dollar.  It's as if we're in suspended animation until this health care thing ends.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The light volume tells the story as traders are waiting to see how this vote on health care goes.  I can make a case for purchasing the SPY April calls on Monday, unless we see a rally from the start.  Technically this trade would make sense but when the market is fixated on the headlines, you never know what is going to come next.  It would be a plus to have the summation index turn around but that hasn't happened yet.  Plenty of time in the April option cycle so there is no need to be in a hurry.  I'm going to have to look over the charts this weekend and determine a course of action.  I do think it will be a plus to get this health care thing out of the way for now.  Even if it doesn't pass.  So plenty to ponder over the next couple of days and I'll have to be ready at the open on Monday.  Now I have just seen that this bill has been shelved and there won't be a vote.  So the indecision lingers.  Once again I'll have to revamp my trading plans for next week.  I suppose that I'll have to keep an eye on the news over the weekend closer than usual.  This isn't the kind of trading environment that I prefer but it is what it is.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

Held hostage by Washington as the Dow fell 4 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around again.  The market is fixated on the health care bill as if it was the only thing in the world that matters.  We are once again in an environment of headline risk.  The advance/declines were pretty good today, so perhaps the market will be able to weather the storm.  It now appears that the vote on this bill has been postponed and that will be seen as a defeat for the current administration.  We'll have to see how the futures react to this news overnight.  I'm still in the camp of buying some SPY April calls.  GE was up about a dime with volume average for lately.  Gold was off $4 on the futures and the US dollar was just up slightly.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're now at the mercy of what happens overnight and I can only guess at what the reaction will be.  All pundits called for a decline if there was any delay for this legislation.  So we'll see what happens.  The S&P 500 is still oversold on the short term technical indicators.  I'd like to see a run down to the 2300 level but that may be wishful thinking.  If we do get a sell off tomorrow, there is usually follow through on Monday morning.  That would be the time to purchase some calls if all goes to plan.  But the market rarely cooperates and I may be able to make a case for purchase tomorrow.  Or who knows?  Maybe we'll rally tomorrow.  Sticking with the technicals, the summation index is still heading lower and we're oversold.  We did see a short bounce this week after Tuesdays decline but it didn't amount to much.  So perhaps we'll go lower before we turn this thing back around.  I don't exactly have a clear signal but I do have a target of 2300 on the downside.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Plenty of time in the April option cycle.  Europe and Asia were higher last night but not by much.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag today after yesterdays drop as the Dow shed 6 points on average volume.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were positive.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I can make a case for a bounce here but for now I'm going to wait to purchase the SPY April calls.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are in the oversold zone.  However I do think that after yesterdays debacle, lower prices will be seen in the coming days. Ideally we'd get to the 2300 level on the S&P 500 but the market rarely cooperates with plans.  So we'll keep an eye on things and see what develops.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks, while the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX was flat.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks performed better today and that's a positive.  The oversold nature of things here is also in the bulls corner.  There's also a potential positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator to watch.  However there's some background headline noise to deal with.  A terrorist attack in London combined with a vote on Trumps health care proposal.  The attack has already been digested by the market in my opinion.  But we'll have to see what happens tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  2 days left in the week but it doesn't appear that a decent opportunity will present itself.  On to Thursday.

It looks like things have changed in a hurry as the Dow got clobbered today.  The most watched index fell 237 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index tried to turn around but is now heading back lower.  Trend lines have now been violated to the downside.  We are not yet completely short term oversold, so there should be some more price erosion to come.  The 50 day moving average for the S&P 500 is around 2325 but better support is at 2300.  I'll look to those levels to try the SPY April calls.  I still think that will be my next trade attempt unless this turns into an all out rout.  GE shed 1/3 and volume was less than average.  Gold found a bid on a lower US dollar.  The yellow metal gained $10.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was good.  I still think that the fundamental backdrop for gold is negative.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was certainly a surprise to me but the market is due for a rest.  Some may say overdue.  The McClellan oscillator made it back through the zero line but has been turned away.  What I will try to do is wait for the short term technical indicators on the S&P to get completely oversold and then purchase the April calls.  It won't be easy.  On the plus side there will be plenty of time for the trade to work itself out.  If we simply continue lower here, perhaps on weakness Thursday I can try to take a position.  But it is tough to try and pick a bottom.  The VIX is already at the top of its recent range but the indicators aren't overbought yet.  So there are plenty of crosscurrents along with questions after todays market action.  What I suppose I'm trying to point out is that the game now has changed.  I'm going to try and not be in too big of a hurry to do something.  At least that's the thought for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Slightly lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to turn around here.  No clear technical signal one way or the other for the S&P 500 on the short term.  The Bollinger bands are converging though, which implies some type of big move is coming.  Which way is always the question.  The VIX remains low.  The QQQ and COMPQ remain very overbought and have been for quite some time.  This condition cannot last forever.  I'd like to purchase some SPY April calls at some point though.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rose four bucks and the US dollar was barely higher.  The XAU added a point and GDX rose almost 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  At this point we're waiting for the next catalyst to move stocks.  Not a lot of economic data due this week.  So we wait.  No clear buy or sell signal for the S&P at the moment.  So we'll have to remain patient for now.  We have plenty of time n the April option cycle for some kind of trade to develop.  Ideally we would head lower to set up a call trade but the market rarely delivers what you want.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in overnight trade.  We'll be keeping an eye on things tonight.

The price movement was muted for the option expiration today as the Dow fell 20 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  We were up and down today but without a lot of volatility.  I'm not sure exactly where we are going from here.  A case can be made for both directions.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are now mid-range.  The medium term picture remains overbought.  There isn't a clear signal for a set up right now.  There's plenty of time in the April option cycle and we will wait for a valid opportunity if one presents itself.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold was slightly higher as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Where we go from here is the question and at the moment I don't have an answer.  Patience is required in the game and now is one of those times.  I'll try and listen to what the market is saying.  I'm still leaning towards the bullish side here and am looking for new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  Once again, there is no rush here to put on a position.  The option premiums are high since we just rolled into the next cycle.  I'll continue to check the charts over the weekend to try and clarify what I should be doing here.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  However the price closes were slight once again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some digestion of the gains made yesterday as the Dow lost 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still attempting to turn back up here.  Not a whole lot to report on todays market action.  We spent much of the day in negative territory.  We've got the expiration tomorrow to wrap up the week.  Not any surprises in the economic data or from the Fed so we are just moving along sideways here in the bigger picture.  I don't have any trades in mind at the moment.  I am leaning towards the bullish side though.  GE was pretty much flat and the volume was light.  Gold finished the session up over $5 on the futures as the US dollar continued its drop.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No rush at the moment for the next trade as we wind down expiration week.  Aprils option cycle has an extra week and that will be reflected in higher premiums.  My job here is to simply wait for the next decent signal and take it from there.  At the moment I'm leaning towards new all time highs for the Dow and the S&P in the near future.  We did work off the short term overbought condition in the indices but we never did reach fully oversold.  We did however each some very low levels in the McClellan oscillator but without the significant decline expected.  I'm not sure what that means but momentum lows were attained at least.  All we can do it continue to monitor the situation and be patient.  That's my best guess right now.  Both Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out expiration week tomorrow.

Expecting a rally today and we got it as the Dow rose 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but appears to be in the process of turning around.  The Fed raised rates as expected and the market took off.  We did finish off of the highs for the session though.  I did sell the SPY March calls that I purchased yesterday but probably could have held on for more gain.  But with only 2 days left in this option cycle, I got out.  The gain was 150% but it could have been a bit better.  Not sure what the next trade will be.  GE was up almost 1/4 and the volume was a bit light.  I don't see any trades here in the near term.  Gold was up over $15 on the futures as the US dollar fell pretty good despite the rate hike.  Evidently it was already baked into prices.  It was not the reaction that I expected but I suppose traders were happy that there still may only be 2 more rate hikes this year.  It's all really just a guessing game when it comes to the Fed.  The XAU jumped 5 3/4, while GDX added 1 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  We'll see if this has legs or was just a one day wonder.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So that was a trade that worked and I expected it to.  That is why you put in the time and effort every day and do the work.  It is also why trading options can be a pretty lucrative game as opposed to the time involved trading stocks for similar capital appreciation.  But it is riskier and certainly isn't an easy game.  The technical expectations will come through for you more than not.  That trade lined up in plenty of time before it happened.  It isn't always that easy but the numbers don't lie.  It's possible that we could see new all time highs before Fridays close but we could stall here just a bit as well.  I didn't get greedy but maybe I should have.  However there are no perfect trades.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up.  A high volume breakout above 2400 would be the most bullish scenario.  But if and when that happens is the question.  I'll be looking out to the April option cycle now and there is an extra week for that time frame.  Asia was generally mixed and Europe slightly higher.  We'll see how they react to the Feds decision tonight.

Selling ahead of the Fed as the Dow fell 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Not a lot of volume for expiration week as the market awaits the Feds latest move.  All signs point to an increase in the Fed funds rate.  I did place an open order for some SPY March calls and it was filled.  Todays decline was what I consider a gift, as it allowed me to take the position that I have been waiting for.  I do believe that we'll be heading higher tomorrow.  This isn't a trade that I expect to hold too long and will most likely be out of tomorrow unless I get greedy.  GE was off 1/3 on light volume.  Gold was down $5 as the US dollar finished higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX dropped 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside.  If the Fed does raise rates tomorrow you would expect some more decline in gold and some more strength in the US dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  In the trade I've been waiting for now and I'm feeling pretty confident about it.  It is showing a slight gain at the moment.  My work has been pointing to tomorrow to be positive.  It is a matter of how much and how quick.  That doesn't mean we can't go lower tomorrow but the odds favor higher prices.  You can never be 100% sure of anything in this game but I've put in the work and we'll see what happens.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have rolled back over again.  Despite that, I still think that this trade will have a positive outcome.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but once again the moves were slight.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed decision tomorrow.  

It was a day of hanging around as the Dow fell 21 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks had good relative strength.  I did place an open order for the SPY March calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm still a believer in this short term trade.  I will try again tomorrow if we get some weakness.  The market is simply waiting on the Fed here and I do expect some kind of move higher on Wednesday.  The light volume is not a concern as things should get going by the middle of the week.  No doubt a very risky endeavor, with only 4 days to go in the March option cycle.  GE was down 3/8 and pretty much lost what it gained on Friday.  Volume was average.  The gold futures were up a couple bucks and The US dollar was bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  The fundamentals for gold remain negative in my opinion.  Mentally I'm a bit sluggish as I am not feeling 100%.  This is a time that I have to be on top of my game, with a short term trade in the works.  I will try and get some extra rest tonight.  If the market simply continues with a light volume rise here, I'll have to pass on this trade.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 aren't completely oversold but they are trying to turn around.  I believe that they will but as usual anything could happen.  I expect another rise in rates on Wednesday but the opposite market reaction than expected due to the technicals.  I could be wrong.  For now I'll continue to monitor things and hopefully get a chance to get long tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Looking for a bounce and we got one today as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  We had a gap at the open, came all the way back to unchanged and then churned our way higher into the close.  It wasn't a great bounce but it has started to alleviate the short term oversold condition.  I'm still a believer in the SPY March calls next week and plan to purchase them on any weakness Monday or Tuesday.  I think we will rally after the Fed, regardless of an interest rate hike.  I could be wrong.  But the technical work right now suggests an up day on Wednesday.  GE was up almost 2/3 on heavy volume.  There was some noise about an activist investor here.  Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar dropped despite a stronger employment report.  Not sure what was going on there but it appears to be a sell the news event.  The XAU rose 2 and GDX added 5/8 on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Only 5 days left in the March option cycle so the risk will be high in an attempt to trade next week.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up here.  However they haven't gotten completely oversold yet.  The Bollinger bands are beginning to converge and that will put some restriction on just how far prices can go in the near term.  Today opened with every reason to be a solid upside session and the performance certainly did not live up to that expectation.  So you have to take notice of the change in the market mood.  I do think that a short term S&P call trade can be successful next week but the entry point will have to be pretty solid.  I will have to go over all the charts and everything in my mind this weekend to try and come up with a plan that will work.  There is also the possibility that this trade is too late but todays market action says that we may stall ahead of the Fed and that will be the opportunity to get some calls.  Sounds good in theory but we will have to see what the market has to say.  So I'll do the work over the weekend and we'll see what happens.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the NIKK leading the way.  The moves in Europe were rather muted once again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow added 2 points today on average volume but we did come well off of the lows for the session.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator is now even more oversold than yesterday.  A bounce is now overdue just as when we were overbought a decline was overdue.  Today had the feel as if at least a short term bottom has been put in.  The short term oversold nature of the market right now along with the potential hammer on the S&P daily candlestick chart tells me that we should see some upside soon.  I will be looking to purchase some SPY March calls tomorrow if we see some selling after the employment report.  That is the plan.  GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold was off $8 on the futures and the US dollar was bit lower.  The XAU and GDX were both fractionally lower again on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Once again I must remark how much the McClellan oscillator and summation index have gone down with the representative price move lower in the major averages.  Normally what we have seen in the oscillator and summation index would have led to a precipitous decline in the averages.  That hasn't been the case here as we are only off around 2% from the recent highs.  Hopefully tomorrow we'll see some selling and the opportunity for the SPY March calls will present itself.  It will be a different story if we take off to the upside on the open.  That will be a harder trade to make.  So we'll see.  The set up is there in my opinion and it is time to act on it.  I feel confident that we will see upside after the Fed on Wednesday as the technical work points to an upside day there.  Asia was mixed with Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report tomorrow.   

The Dow fell 69 points today on better volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  Buying pressure has now turned into selling pressure, although the point moves so far haven't been as extreme.  The McClellan oscillator is now in a very negative reading that usually produces at least a bounce.  I do not think that the rally has ended and I do not believe that a huge decline is in the works.  The small stocks have held up rather well and that tells me that the decline should be muted.  I'm looking at the SPY March calls but with the employment number looming I may have to wait until next week.  The problem is that time in the March option cycle is running out.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  Gold fell $8 on the futures while the US dollar was higher again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is looking more and more as if the 300+ point move last week was a blow off top.  We are somewhat oversold here but that doesn't mean that we can't move lower.  I'm looking for some strength in the middle of next week but we have to get there first.  It would also probably be wise not to take a position ahead of the jobs report.  Wait to see how the market reacts to the numbers would be the prudent course of action.  But the market usually doesn't wait for you either.  I'm going to remain on the sidelines for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight but the moves in Europe were rather small.  We'll keep an eye on the trading tonight.   

Continuing lower for a change as the Dow fell 29 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market is perhaps rolling over here but I do not expect any huge decline.  I can make a case for getting some SPY March calls but next week would be the ideal time.  With the technical indicators on the short term rolling over for the major averages, the trend is lower for now.  I'm not so sure about trying the SPY puts here as we have already fallen off of the recent high.  We will have to see how things play out ahead of Fridays employment report.  GE was off another 1/8 and volume picked up a bit.  Gold fell $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was just a bit higher.  Not a good seasonal time for gold.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a slight drop so far for the major averages.  With the exception of RUT, we are still off from the 50 day moving averages of most indices.  RUT led us up so we'll have to keep an eye on if it's going to lead the way down.  March in general is favorable for stocks.  I therefore do not expect any kind of sustained decline here.  Perhaps staying patient and waiting to obtain some calls ahead of the Fed is the best course of action at this stage.  But we will have to see how the next couple of days play out.  The jobs report could be an event worth trading.  Some global markets are on the verge of breaking out.  This could also be a positive sign for the US market going forward.  However right now we'll concern ourselves with the March option trading.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower in overnight trade but the moves were small.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A downer for a change to begin the trading week as the Dow fell 51 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  We'll take our cues from that.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over.  I'm not sure if we'll get a chance for the SPY March puts as it already appears to be too late.  The only hope for that trade is a light volume run up in the next couple of sessions.  If that doesn't happen, we'll look for the SPY March calls ahead of the Fed next week.  We could just be in a sideways consolidation for a while.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  No trades in mind here for now.  Gold was little changed on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares fell though.  The XAU shed 2 1/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was a little less than normal.  No love for the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only nine days to go in the March option cycle.  The timing of the next trade will have to be right as there will be no room for error.  However with no risk comes no reward.  I do anticipate doing something before the March option cycle ends.  For now I'm simply waiting for a near term set up.  If we continue lower, I'll try the SPY calls.  If we go higher, I'll look for the puts as long as the summation index is heading down.  So we'll see.  Plus we have the jobs report on Friday to deal with.  So it is time to pay attention and we'll see how it goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on this evenings trade.

The Dow spent most of the session in negative territory but did manage to finish the day with a gain of 2 points on what now passes for light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is now moving lower.  We're still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the major averages, so there is some room to go lower.  Yellen spoke today but it didn't have much effect on the market.  There will be a better chance of some market movement when we get the Fed meeting over on the 15th.  I'm not sure what will happen here in the near term but I will try and figure it out over the weekend.  Perhaps if we are higher early next week, I could try the SPY March puts.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  The short term technicals here appear to be rolling over.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar took a hit.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was good.  If rates do rise as Yellen promises it will not be positive for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, busy day.  I'm taking a look at things here and am still surprised at the positive run we've had.  Wednesday does look like a blow off top to me but I could be wrong.  Perhaps we are about to simply enter another sideways period before heading higher once again.  I will need to go over all the charts this weekend to try and come up with something.  With 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle I'm sure there will be opportunity somewhere.  We've got the employment report next week as the main economic number to watch but that isn't until Friday.  Right now I think the ideal scenario would be a light volume levitation on Monday and Tuesday in order to purchase some puts.  But I'll try and get things figured out over the weekend.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Downside today as the Dow fell 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  Way overdue for some type of pullback and today could be the start.  Yesterday now looks more and more like a blow off top.  I'll be looking for an entry point for the SPY March puts.  A light volume return to the 2400 level on the S&P 500 would be the ideal scenario.  The short term technical indicators are still overbought, so there is room to go lower.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold took a hit today as the futures lost $15.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 4 and GDX shed a point on good volume.  March is historically the worst month for the yellow metal and it is living up to that so far.  The fear of higher interest rates is taking over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll now have to see if things get interesting as we could have some doji stars on the weekly candlestick charts of some for the major stock indices.  Depends on how we close tomorrow.  The VIX is also not in sync with the changes in prices lately.  For example today the VIX was lower along with stock prices.  They usually move in the opposite direction.  It's something to keep an eye on although I don't exactly know what it means, if anything.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow as well and we haven't seen that in a while.  So perhaps we're in for a pause in the festivities but one day doesn't make a trend.  March in general is a good month for stocks so maybe some sideways activity is what we'll see.  Time will tell on that.  I suppose that I'll let tomorrow pass and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last night s trade but the moves were muted.  The exception was a decent rise in NIKK.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A blast off higher today as the Dow roared ahead by 303 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index should be moving back up.  Trump sounded like a president but didn't really say anything.  It didn't matter.  The market took off like a rocket.  This is a freight train running loose that you don't want to step in front of.  Extremely overbought and moving in a straight line.  This will not end well but who knows where the end is?  Today squeezed all the rest of the shorts ahead of Trumps address to congress.  I'm not sure where we go from here but I'll continue to look at the SPY March puts.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  I still think that the fundamentals for gold are negative.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We just rose over 1000 points in a month.  This is amazing in itself.  It has the feel of a blow off top but we'll only know that in hindsight.  The market can stay overbought longer than you can stay solvent, or so I've heard.  I'm still waiting for a negative divergence that may never occur at this rate.  It is virtually impossible for me to buy calls here because the technical indicators remain out of whack.  So I'll simply have to wait until I see something worth making a trade on.  Still plenty of time in the March option cycle.  The VIX has room to move down on the short term indicators so even some more upside from here isn't out of the question.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were both higher in yesterdays trade.  I'm not sure what we'll see tomorrow but these are very interesting times.