Tuesday, April 11, 2017
Volatility returns but the Dow made yet another comeback. The most watched index was off almost 150 points in the morning and finished the day with a loss of 6 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index is still moving higher but prices are not. My weekly SPY April calls are in the red with only 2 days to go. It is a cut the loss trade at this point. I still expect some strength here in the next couple of sessions but it probably won't be enough to save this trade. This morning was the time to try the SPY April calls. Retrospect is always on time. The VIX shot up to its highest level this year today. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold found a bid as the futures rallied over $20. The US dollar was lower. The XAU jumped 2 1/3, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. Lower yields combined with geo-political tensions were the main drivers. I'm not sure how long that will last. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm once again not exactly sure of what to make of the good breadth without the corresponding upward move in price. The RUT is acting well here and that is bullish in my book. However the light volume remains a concern but that may be due to a holiday week and spring break. That also could be the reason for the pick up in volatility but that's a guess as usual. The upside that I was looking for is overdue so I expect a positive day either tomorrow or Thursday. I'd be very surprised if we simply continued lower. But I also have to admit that my take on things here isn't exactly clear. I'm also wondering if I simply put on this SPY trade because I wanted to do something before the expiration. The signal wasn't exactly the best. It doesn't matter now as I have to get out of this trade now with the least possible damage. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll see if we get some kind of bounce in the US trading on Wednesday.