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Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Opening higher and closing lower as the Dow fell 118 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in positive territory.  The summation index is trending sideways.  As I've said before I can't quite make out what is going on here.  However with the small stocks acting well, I don't think that we're on the verge of any major breakdown.  I'm still looking at the May SPY calls.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  No trades in mind here.  Gold shed over $10 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU lost 2 7/8, while GDX dropped 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  Gold is at some long term resistance here and a pullback isn't out of the question.  If gold can get through the $1300 level on good volume the picture would turn very positive in my view.  But that remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The big cap indices have been slowly trending lower since the start of March.  I'm still thinking that this is simply a long consolidation before we attempt new all time highs again.  There isn't much else to report.  The Fed minutes came and went.  The usual positive option expiration week bias didn't last.  Perhaps the bounce on Tuesday was a chance to get short.  But I have to believe that any decline will be short lived.  The major indices are not in sync, therefore it appears to be more consolidation in my view.  I'm going to wait for a clear signal and go from there.  Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on overnight developments.

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