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Wednesday, April 05, 2017

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow had an upside gap open and then closed lower for the day.  The most watched index fell 41 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This will halt the rise in the summation index but I don't think it's turned lower yet.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that is a warning sign.  I think that if the RUT breaks and closes below 1340 that the tone and the trend will turn negative.  The Dow could not hold an almost 200 point gain from early in the session.  I have no explanation but the excuse is the Fed minutes release.  I did cancel my open order for the SPY April calls but I really almost chased the rally today.  I wanted to simply put in another order because I thought that this was the rise that will take us to new all time highs by expiration.  But I didn't and now I have to reevaluate whether my positive hypothesis for prices is valid.  GE was off a nickel but was much higher during the session.  Volume was light.  Gold was flat on the day and came off of its lows.  The US dollar was flat as well but came off of its highs.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we have to decide if today was a one day wonder or the start of something real to the downside.  The volume was legitimate so it really makes me wonder.  Not to mention that the small stocks are leading the way lower and that is bearish.  The short term technical indicators remain mid-range even with todays price action for the S&P.  So we still are in a zone where it could go either way.  If we get some good downside follow through tomorrow, then I think the market will be in trouble.  As I stated earlier keep an eye on RUT.  It led the way up and now has been moving sideways for 4 months.  If it breaks down I believe the overall market will follow.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I'd still like to think that we're going to head higher.  April is usually a seasonally strong month.  So we'll see.  I'll have to look at the charts tonight and decide whether I'm going to try the SPY April calls again.  Plus we have the employment report out on Friday and now that certainly will be a market mover.  So there is a lot to think about tonight.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the foreign markets react tonight to todays turnaround in the US.  

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