Friday, April 07, 2017
Plenty of pre-market drama but when it was all said and done it was a day of market drift. The Dow fell 6 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is barely moving higher. We had the US bombing Syria overnight and then a weaker than expected jobs report. However the expected volatility never happened as we traded in a small range all day. We now have geo-political risk to contend with along with the usual market risks. So it definitely makes for even tougher trading as headline risk has returned. The technical indicators are not even moving as they remain mid-range. I did place another order for the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled. I suppose I'll try again on Monday depending on how things look over the weekend. GE was up a few cents on very light volume. Gold rallied early on but then gave it all back and then some. The futures finished up 3 bucks but were much higher than that. The US dollar rose. The XAU and GDX came off their highs for slight losses. Volume was average. Hard to figure exactly what was going on there. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The market is trending sideways for now and that isn't a good sign for trading options. The light volume also is a factor. It implies a lack of interest as we are now in an aimless drift. 2 weeks to go in the April option cycle and I would like to try something. But we have a lot of premium left in option prices for the April cycle. As the days go by more time and volatility premium gets sucked out of the options and we have no real volatility at the moment. The one day reversal lower that we had this week juiced up the volatility premium and now that is being frittered away with each passing day. So the game gets tougher to put something profitable together. I'm still in the bullish camp but that could change in a hurry with headline risk. The employment report did not have its usual effect on the market today as traders simply pulled back on doing anything after last night. Perhaps I'll have to skip the April option cycle but that remains to be seen. I'll check all the charts in the next 2 days and try to come up with a definite plan for next week. It will be a short week due to a holiday on Friday. Plenty to think about. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.