Thursday, April 13, 2017
The market continues to drop here as the Dow fell 138 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. This should turn the summation index lower. I'm not sure what is going on here. I now have solid buy signals on a couple of my indicators. However the market has the feel of wanting to fall apart here. We are however, not in a crash zone on the summation index. My weekly SPY April call trade was a 100% loser. That is ridiculous. I was so certain that we'd see some upside that I never even put in a stop loss order. Unacceptable. Not to mention that the entry was wrong and we are in a holiday week. I don't know what I was thinking but it was all wrong. Today I actually placed another order for the SPY April calls but later canceled it. Some of my technical indicators are in the buy zone both short and medium term. But I really have to think about what is going on here and I do not want to make a trade to just try and make back what I just lost. I'll consider what to do over the weekend. GE was off 20 cents and the volume was light. The daily technical indicators have rolled over here. Gold was up over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower but came up from the lows of the day. It appears like a flight to safety is in order as the US has just dropped some kind of huge bomb on Afghanistan. But the gold shares were quiet as the XAU and GDX finished the session little changed on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Interesting markets as it looks like we are about to drop below the support of a trading range that has been in effect for weeks on some of the major indices. Some of the technical indicators are not completely oversold so there is a chance that we are going to see some extended decline after a bounce. That's my guess at the moment but my take on things here is shaky at best.. My own indicators indicate that upside is due. The VIX indicators are in the area where at least a bounce is seen. I will really have to consider getting long on weakness Monday morning. However my confidence isn't exactly in a good place after the last trade. I also don't want to compound the recent loss with another negative trade. But it does look like an opportunity here for me, if I can manage it properly. That remains to be seen. It seems like there just were not any buyers this week, for whatever reasons. Geo-political concerns are in the forefront as well. I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and try and decide what to do. Also the sooner I put the losing trade behind me, the better my mind will be at trying to figure out where to go next. The game is never easy and the battle with myself never ends. Asia was mostly lower and Europe was red across the board. Plenty to ponder in the next 3 days. For now it's Thursday afternoon and a long weekend break is upon us.