Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 113 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is now trending sideways. No follow through to yesterdays gains as the day began with a gap to the downside. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow so I'm still in the bullish camp for now. But I have to admit that I do not have a good idea of what is going on here. The sidelines seem to be the safest place for me at the moment. The RUT is holding up for now above the 1340 level. As long as that holds, I'm still going to look for higher prices going forward. GE was up 20 cents on average volume. Gold was flat on the day despite the US dollar getting crushed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. The lack of movement in gold and the gold shares isn't positive with the drop in the dollar. We should have seen some gains for the precious metal. Mentally I'm again feeling a bit tired. The short term technical indicators for the major averages are oversold but not completely. We do have the Bollinger bands converging which implies a big move one way or the other coming up. My thinking is that the sideways price activity that we've seen for the past month and a half is a consolidation before we head higher. If not we have built a pretty good top and prices should fall quickly. The recent action in the VIX indicators points to a rally coming. However as always, the market goes where it wants. We could turn those indicators around and the market could fall but the odds favor the opposite. We've got the Fed minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover. It's also earnings season and anything goes there. It's a time to pay attention perhaps a bit more than usual. But like I said, I don't have a clear idea of what's going on. Asia was mixed with Europe lower once again. Europe could be moving in anticipation of the French election coming this weekend. That's a guess as usual. We'll see what tomorrow brings.