Friday, March 31, 2017
A down day to close out the quarter as the Dow fell 65 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. Positive advance/declines and better relative performance of the small stocks says that the market can go higher. We might need to take a little breather first. That's my hope at least because it would then provide the opportunity to purchase the SPY April calls. One caveat here is that the volume has been pretty weak and you would really like to see that pick up moving higher. No clear signal one way or the other just yet but the short term technical indicators for the S&P appear to be starting to roll over. GE lost a few cents but the volume was very heavy. The gold futures gained a few bucks as the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The month of April has arrived and there are still 3 weeks to go in that option cycle. The ideal scenario here for me would perhaps be a run down to the 50 day moving average again for the S&P in the near term. That would set up another chance to purchase some regular index calls. I do not think that I'll be trying the weekly calls again in the April option cycle. But the market will go where it wants. We could also see some beginning of the month money flows and that would limit the near term downside. The market did drop in the final half hour today but that could have been quarterly related. Plenty of economic data due out next week topped off by the employment report on Friday. So there will be a lot to take in as the week goes on. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to see exactly what I can come up with for next week. For now I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.