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Friday, March 10, 2017

Looking for a bounce and we got one today as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  We had a gap at the open, came all the way back to unchanged and then churned our way higher into the close.  It wasn't a great bounce but it has started to alleviate the short term oversold condition.  I'm still a believer in the SPY March calls next week and plan to purchase them on any weakness Monday or Tuesday.  I think we will rally after the Fed, regardless of an interest rate hike.  I could be wrong.  But the technical work right now suggests an up day on Wednesday.  GE was up almost 2/3 on heavy volume.  There was some noise about an activist investor here.  Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar dropped despite a stronger employment report.  Not sure what was going on there but it appears to be a sell the news event.  The XAU rose 2 and GDX added 5/8 on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Only 5 days left in the March option cycle so the risk will be high in an attempt to trade next week.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up here.  However they haven't gotten completely oversold yet.  The Bollinger bands are beginning to converge and that will put some restriction on just how far prices can go in the near term.  Today opened with every reason to be a solid upside session and the performance certainly did not live up to that expectation.  So you have to take notice of the change in the market mood.  I do think that a short term S&P call trade can be successful next week but the entry point will have to be pretty solid.  I will have to go over all the charts and everything in my mind this weekend to try and come up with a plan that will work.  There is also the possibility that this trade is too late but todays market action says that we may stall ahead of the Fed and that will be the opportunity to get some calls.  Sounds good in theory but we will have to see what the market has to say.  So I'll do the work over the weekend and we'll see what happens.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the NIKK leading the way.  The moves in Europe were rather muted once again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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