Friday, March 03, 2017
The Dow spent most of the session in negative territory but did manage to finish the day with a gain of 2 points on what now passes for light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now moving lower. We're still overbought on the short term technical indicators for the major averages, so there is some room to go lower. Yellen spoke today but it didn't have much effect on the market. There will be a better chance of some market movement when we get the Fed meeting over on the 15th. I'm not sure what will happen here in the near term but I will try and figure it out over the weekend. Perhaps if we are higher early next week, I could try the SPY March puts. GE was off a few cents and the volume was light. The short term technicals here appear to be rolling over. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar took a hit. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was good. If rates do rise as Yellen promises it will not be positive for gold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, busy day. I'm taking a look at things here and am still surprised at the positive run we've had. Wednesday does look like a blow off top to me but I could be wrong. Perhaps we are about to simply enter another sideways period before heading higher once again. I will need to go over all the charts this weekend to try and come up with something. With 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle I'm sure there will be opportunity somewhere. We've got the employment report next week as the main economic number to watch but that isn't until Friday. Right now I think the ideal scenario would be a light volume levitation on Monday and Tuesday in order to purchase some puts. But I'll try and get things figured out over the weekend. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.