Wednesday, March 08, 2017
The Dow fell 69 points today on better volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. Buying pressure has now turned into selling pressure, although the point moves so far haven't been as extreme. The McClellan oscillator is now in a very negative reading that usually produces at least a bounce. I do not think that the rally has ended and I do not believe that a huge decline is in the works. The small stocks have held up rather well and that tells me that the decline should be muted. I'm looking at the SPY March calls but with the employment number looming I may have to wait until next week. The problem is that time in the March option cycle is running out. GE was off a few cents and the volume was average. Gold fell $8 on the futures while the US dollar was higher again. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It is looking more and more as if the 300+ point move last week was a blow off top. We are somewhat oversold here but that doesn't mean that we can't move lower. I'm looking for some strength in the middle of next week but we have to get there first. It would also probably be wise not to take a position ahead of the jobs report. Wait to see how the market reacts to the numbers would be the prudent course of action. But the market usually doesn't wait for you either. I'm going to remain on the sidelines for now. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight but the moves in Europe were rather small. We'll keep an eye on the trading tonight.