Thursday, March 09, 2017
The Dow added 2 points today on average volume but we did come well off of the lows for the session. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The McClellan oscillator is now even more oversold than yesterday. A bounce is now overdue just as when we were overbought a decline was overdue. Today had the feel as if at least a short term bottom has been put in. The short term oversold nature of the market right now along with the potential hammer on the S&P daily candlestick chart tells me that we should see some upside soon. I will be looking to purchase some SPY March calls tomorrow if we see some selling after the employment report. That is the plan. GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold was off $8 on the futures and the US dollar was bit lower. The XAU and GDX were both fractionally lower again on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Once again I must remark how much the McClellan oscillator and summation index have gone down with the representative price move lower in the major averages. Normally what we have seen in the oscillator and summation index would have led to a precipitous decline in the averages. That hasn't been the case here as we are only off around 2% from the recent highs. Hopefully tomorrow we'll see some selling and the opportunity for the SPY March calls will present itself. It will be a different story if we take off to the upside on the open. That will be a harder trade to make. So we'll see. The set up is there in my opinion and it is time to act on it. I feel confident that we will see upside after the Fed on Wednesday as the technical work points to an upside day there. Asia was mixed with Europe generally higher overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report tomorrow.