Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Selling ahead of the Fed as the Dow fell 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Not a lot of volume for expiration week as the market awaits the Feds latest move. All signs point to an increase in the Fed funds rate. I did place an open order for some SPY March calls and it was filled. Todays decline was what I consider a gift, as it allowed me to take the position that I have been waiting for. I do believe that we'll be heading higher tomorrow. This isn't a trade that I expect to hold too long and will most likely be out of tomorrow unless I get greedy. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. Gold was down $5 as the US dollar finished higher. The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX dropped 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. If the Fed does raise rates tomorrow you would expect some more decline in gold and some more strength in the US dollar. Mentally I'm feeling OK. In the trade I've been waiting for now and I'm feeling pretty confident about it. It is showing a slight gain at the moment. My work has been pointing to tomorrow to be positive. It is a matter of how much and how quick. That doesn't mean we can't go lower tomorrow but the odds favor higher prices. You can never be 100% sure of anything in this game but I've put in the work and we'll see what happens. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have rolled back over again. Despite that, I still think that this trade will have a positive outcome. Europe and Asia were lower overnight but once again the moves were slight. We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed decision tomorrow.