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Thursday, March 23, 2017

Held hostage by Washington as the Dow fell 4 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around again.  The market is fixated on the health care bill as if it was the only thing in the world that matters.  We are once again in an environment of headline risk.  The advance/declines were pretty good today, so perhaps the market will be able to weather the storm.  It now appears that the vote on this bill has been postponed and that will be seen as a defeat for the current administration.  We'll have to see how the futures react to this news overnight.  I'm still in the camp of buying some SPY April calls.  GE was up about a dime with volume average for lately.  Gold was off $4 on the futures and the US dollar was just up slightly.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're now at the mercy of what happens overnight and I can only guess at what the reaction will be.  All pundits called for a decline if there was any delay for this legislation.  So we'll see what happens.  The S&P 500 is still oversold on the short term technical indicators.  I'd like to see a run down to the 2300 level but that may be wishful thinking.  If we do get a sell off tomorrow, there is usually follow through on Monday morning.  That would be the time to purchase some calls if all goes to plan.  But the market rarely cooperates and I may be able to make a case for purchase tomorrow.  Or who knows?  Maybe we'll rally tomorrow.  Sticking with the technicals, the summation index is still heading lower and we're oversold.  We did see a short bounce this week after Tuesdays decline but it didn't amount to much.  So perhaps we'll go lower before we turn this thing back around.  I don't exactly have a clear signal but I do have a target of 2300 on the downside.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Plenty of time in the April option cycle.  Europe and Asia were higher last night but not by much.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

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