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Tuesday, March 07, 2017

Continuing lower for a change as the Dow fell 29 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market is perhaps rolling over here but I do not expect any huge decline.  I can make a case for getting some SPY March calls but next week would be the ideal time.  With the technical indicators on the short term rolling over for the major averages, the trend is lower for now.  I'm not so sure about trying the SPY puts here as we have already fallen off of the recent high.  We will have to see how things play out ahead of Fridays employment report.  GE was off another 1/8 and volume picked up a bit.  Gold fell $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was just a bit higher.  Not a good seasonal time for gold.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a slight drop so far for the major averages.  With the exception of RUT, we are still off from the 50 day moving averages of most indices.  RUT led us up so we'll have to keep an eye on if it's going to lead the way down.  March in general is favorable for stocks.  I therefore do not expect any kind of sustained decline here.  Perhaps staying patient and waiting to obtain some calls ahead of the Fed is the best course of action at this stage.  But we will have to see how the next couple of days play out.  The jobs report could be an event worth trading.  Some global markets are on the verge of breaking out.  This could also be a positive sign for the US market going forward.  However right now we'll concern ourselves with the March option trading.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower in overnight trade but the moves were small.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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