Tuesday, March 21, 2017
It looks like things have changed in a hurry as the Dow got clobbered today. The most watched index fell 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. The summation index tried to turn around but is now heading back lower. Trend lines have now been violated to the downside. We are not yet completely short term oversold, so there should be some more price erosion to come. The 50 day moving average for the S&P 500 is around 2325 but better support is at 2300. I'll look to those levels to try the SPY April calls. I still think that will be my next trade attempt unless this turns into an all out rout. GE shed 1/3 and volume was less than average. Gold found a bid on a lower US dollar. The yellow metal gained $10. The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was good. I still think that the fundamental backdrop for gold is negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Today was certainly a surprise to me but the market is due for a rest. Some may say overdue. The McClellan oscillator made it back through the zero line but has been turned away. What I will try to do is wait for the short term technical indicators on the S&P to get completely oversold and then purchase the April calls. It won't be easy. On the plus side there will be plenty of time for the trade to work itself out. If we simply continue lower here, perhaps on weakness Thursday I can try to take a position. But it is tough to try and pick a bottom. The VIX is already at the top of its recent range but the indicators aren't overbought yet. So there are plenty of crosscurrents along with questions after todays market action. What I suppose I'm trying to point out is that the game now has changed. I'm going to try and not be in too big of a hurry to do something. At least that's the thought for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.