Monday, March 27, 2017
Quite a start to the week as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. We opened the day off 175 points on the failure of the health care bill and worked our way back. The summation index is still trying to turn around. I did place an order to get the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it open overnight. We should see some kind of rally from here. The technical work that I do points to some gains by Wednesday at the latest. Todays price action also points to higher near term prices. The small stocks continue to act well here and we probably won't see any wholesale decline as long as that is the case. GE was off 1/4 and the volume was average. Gold rallied early but came off of its highs. The precious metal futures rose $7. The US dollar was lower. The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired with the early morning gyrations. The issue that we're having here is that with so much time left in the April option cycle, the huge moves in the price of the indexes is not being reflected in the option premiums. What I mean is that despite a daily range today of over 2 points in the SPY, the option premiums barely moved. The loss of time premium seemed to be more of an effect than the price movement in the underlying. But this is what we deal with when trading the index options. I still believe that there is a trade to be made here. I just don't know if it will happen at the price that I'm willing to pay. It also is a trade that I don't think has a lot of legs. What I'm saying is that it will be short term in nature if the order gets filled. Hasn't happened yet. The VIX came well off of its highs today as well, which tells me that the decline has probably ended for now. So we'll see. I do see that higher prices should arrive on Wednesday at the latest. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. We'll watch what happens tonight and be back at it in the morning.