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Thursday, March 02, 2017

Downside today as the Dow fell 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  Way overdue for some type of pullback and today could be the start.  Yesterday now looks more and more like a blow off top.  I'll be looking for an entry point for the SPY March puts.  A light volume return to the 2400 level on the S&P 500 would be the ideal scenario.  The short term technical indicators are still overbought, so there is room to go lower.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold took a hit today as the futures lost $15.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 4 and GDX shed a point on good volume.  March is historically the worst month for the yellow metal and it is living up to that so far.  The fear of higher interest rates is taking over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll now have to see if things get interesting as we could have some doji stars on the weekly candlestick charts of some for the major stock indices.  Depends on how we close tomorrow.  The VIX is also not in sync with the changes in prices lately.  For example today the VIX was lower along with stock prices.  They usually move in the opposite direction.  It's something to keep an eye on although I don't exactly know what it means, if anything.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow as well and we haven't seen that in a while.  So perhaps we're in for a pause in the festivities but one day doesn't make a trend.  March in general is a good month for stocks so maybe some sideways activity is what we'll see.  Time will tell on that.  I suppose that I'll let tomorrow pass and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last night s trade but the moves were muted.  The exception was a decent rise in NIKK.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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