Thursday, May 04, 2017
Another day of hanging around as the Dow lost 6 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned around and is now moving lower. We did have a midday sell off when oil dropped but the stock market recovered. The overall market was just a bit stronger than the Dow. Good volume lately but no movement for the major stock indices. I'm not exactly sure what that means but I'm still looking for a positive resolution to the sideways movement we've seen lately. I've left in my open order for the SPY May calls. Perhaps tomorrows employment report will get things going one way or the other. GE was off a few cents. The short term technical indicators here are oversold. Gold continues to fall as the futures dropped $20 today. The US dollar fell as well. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was good. Not sure what is happening with gold but commodities in general are falling. Weakness in oil doesn't help gold either. With both gold and the dollar dropping something has to give soon. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just a bit of weakness in the small stocks with the exception of RUT which has rolled over. The technical indicators for RUT are mid-range. Like I said before, RUT led us up and now we will have to see if it will lead us down. My feeling is that the market is on the verge of something here. I'm still looking for new all time highs. However with the summation index now moving down, you can make a case for lower prices. But if the market starts to take off on the jobs report, I may just have to get in and follow. We'll see. I probably should wait for a decent signal though and the short term technical indicators for the S&P remain overbought. They have stayed that way for a few days and we haven't seen the usual upward price movement. The trading is never easy. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll be on the lookout for the jobs numbers and close out the week tomorrow.