Wednesday, May 03, 2017
A one day reversal to the upside for the Dow as we opened lower and closed higher. The Dow edged up 8 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index is barely moving up. The small stocks are now showing relative weakness instead of strength. The short term indicators for RUT have rolled over to the downside. RUT led us higher. Is it about to lead us lower? We've had good volume lately and have only been able to move sideways. Is that a concern going forward? It could be. I still have the open order in for the May SPY calls. The Fed came and went today and it was the expected non affair. Next up is Fridays employment report. GE showed some life and was up 1/4. Volume was nothing special. Gold dropped $17 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. We are back to no love for gold and that could accelerate with a strong jobs report. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just about 2 weeks to go in the May option cycle. I'm still looking for new all time highs for the S&P 500 before expiration but there are some warning signs starting to appear. The under performance of the small stocks recently being a concern. Not to mention that the short term technical indicators for the S&P remain overbought with any upside movement in the index. Could the stock market roll over here? Perhaps. Sometimes the month of May can be negative. But I do still think that this is a pause near the all time highs for the Dow and the S&P before we break out to new highs. But the longer the small stocks lag, the less likely that outcome becomes a possibility. So keeping an eye on things is as important as ever. Europe and Asia were mixed last night. I expect tomorrow to be a wait and see session before the data on Friday. We'll keep an eye on things.