Wednesday, May 17, 2017
Well that should be it for new all time highs for a while as the Dow got clobbered today on Trump drama. The most watched index fell 372 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index will be heading down. We're now at the mercy of headline risk and that is a tough environment to trade. I'm not sure how low we'll go here but this probably isn't just a one day wonder. I could be wrong. It now appears that we just had a multi-month distribution and are falling away from that. If so, support looks to come in for the S&P at 2330 and then 2280. Trump has been in the headlines since the election but this is the first time he's had a real negative influence. GE lost almost 2/3 on heavy volume. Perhaps GE had the right idea all along. Look for at least some support at 26 which is the 200 day moving average. Gold found a bid on safe haven activity. The precious metal futures rose $24. The dollar continues to fall due to the uncertainty now in Washington. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume but the gains were not that great considering the circumstances. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility returned today with a vengeance. How long this lasts is unknown. It should provide some trading opportunities though. With only a couple of days left in the May option cycle, looking out to June makes sense. If and when we get to support, I'll take a look at the June SPY calls. But it really is too early to tell what will happen from here. The VIX is overbought here but not extremely so. Most of the short term indicators for the major stock indices have rolled over but are not oversold. That tells me that we probably have more downside to go. Tomorrow should be interesting as well. We practically closed on the low for today. I'd advise to simply sit back and watch for the rest of this week. Europe and Asia were lower overnight but not as much as the US. We'll see how they fare overnight.