Friday, May 12, 2017
Just another day in a listless market as the Dow fell 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is barely moving lower. The NASDAQ was up again today in the usual mixed market that we have been held hostage to for the past three weeks. The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the S&P. That's one reason not to be in a hurry to get the SPY calls here. That said, I do believe that any weakness can be bought on Monday for a short term trade. Of course it will have to short term since there is only a week left in the May option cycle. I canceled my open order for the calls but will probably be putting it back on Monday morning. GE got crushed today on a downgrade and was off almost 2/3 on very heavy volume. If GE is a precursor for the overall market then lower prices loom. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares had a good week but the volume just wasn't there. Which means we'll probably be heading lower going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Low volatility, mixed markets and no real price movement despite the statistics coming out. This is a confusing set of circumstances for me. I'm not even sure if it is worth putting on a trade next week. I do still favor the SPY May calls for the short term but it won't be an easy trade to do. We've stalled for so long at the level to break out to new highs that it may be getting too late. We are either getting all the selling done before a breakout or the final lemmings are being sucked in before we drop. Expiration week usually has a positive bias so the bulls will have that going in their favor. One of my short term indicators is in the buy signal range as well. I'll probably try the call trade if we're lower on Monday but I'll also go over everything this weekend to see if it is worth the risk. Once again, the timing in and out will have to be spot on. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.