Hanging around here as the Dow gained 4 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. I get the feeling we are preparing for one more thrust to the upside. After that, who knows? I'm leaving in my order for the OEX puts. I think we'll see some downside on Friday or Monday. However after that, if it occurs, I'm going to get long the gold shares. That's the scenario for now. It has been a pretty slow week here so far. Gold was little changed today and the XAU fell almost 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on light volume. The dollar was higher today but I really think these are thin markets this week. I'll try and be patient. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So we are here moving sideways on light volume and waiting to see where the next catalyst comes from. Again, I think the upside is limited here with one more pop perhaps. But I could be wrong. However, I am willing to try the OEX puts here and we'll see what transpires from here.

Overbought and staying there again as the Dow gained 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Once again we were higher early and then came back. It's possible that we'll get one more up thrust and then head down from there. Or we could just head lower from here. But I'm pretty sure that the upside will be limited from here near term. The negative divergence on the RSI for the OEX is taking shape. My open order for the OEX puts wasn't filled and I'll probably be leaving another one for tomorrow. Gold gained a couple bucks and the XAU was up 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar didn't do much but oil was noticeably weaker. The scenario here remains the same, I'll get long the gold shares on weakness. That should occur if the market takes a rest here soon. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm tired. Got up early today for jury duty and it was a tortuous day to say the least. But it's over now and the markets won't wait and don't care. The OEX puts look to be my next trade. The timing is everything. It is almost at the point where patience isn't going to help. But not yet. We'll see how tomorrow unfolds.

The Dow managed a 3 point gain today but we were much higher earlier. Advance/declines were about even and the volume looks pretty good for a summer Monday. We are now getting the negative RSI divergence that I've been looking for. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but I am looking for a decline. Might have to wait until the end of the week but that's fine. I have an open order in for some OEX puts. The summation index is about as high as it goes in my opinion. I could be wrong. We'll see what happens. Gold took a hit today, down $11. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses. NEM led the way down. Volume was light. I'm still inclined to get long the gold shares when the proper signal hits. It's a matter of when. If the market drops a bit here as I suspect, it might be a buy for the gold shares. The shares today held up much better than the metal itself and that is a positive. But anything can happen. I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I feel fine, slept OK. At this point the scenario is that if we trade higher until the end of the week I'll be looking to get the OEX puts. If we trade lower all week I'll be looking to get long the gold shares. A sideways continuation will have me still considering the OEX puts. It has been a busy summer for the markets and no summer doldrums this year. Hard to say what that means going forward. More volatility perhaps. On to Tuesday.

The Bollinger bands did converge and we got a dramatic move. I thought it would be to the downside but higher we go. The Dow gained 156 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index should move back to the upside with todays action. Another up day and we will be short term overbought. I don't think the summation index is about to take off to the upside here and there will be some negative divergences after today. I'm going to think long and hard about getting some OEX puts at the beginning of next week. We'll see. Gold had a good day as well, up $13. The XAU only rose 3 points though. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside again on light volume. The dollar was weaker today. I canceled my open order for the ABX September calls. I'll have to give gold some thought over the weekend as well. It looks like it is poised to go higher but if we get a drop in the markets, the gold shares will follow. However, it is possible that we will just continue higher and the gold shares along with it too. I don't think that is the scenario that will unfold here but it could. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or long enough. Last week of August coming up. Just how high will we go here? There's a lot to look at over the weekend. You can't argue with price though. I think that I'll be putting on a trade next week. Right now though I'm going to take a break and relax. Summer is almost coming to a close.

Settling out on the Dow as it looks to be a gain of around 70 points on average volume. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 positive. We've had a positive expiration week bias after Mondays drop. There was no follow through to the downside even when the overseas markets faltered. I'm still favoring the OEX puts when we get overbought, which could happen next week. We'll get through Friday and take it from there. Gold lost $3 but the XAU rose 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains again on light volume. The gold shares are following the overall market at the moment. I still have an order in for the ABX September calls but may cancel it before the weekend. If the market does drop the gold shares will go with it. However, nothing is set in stone when it comes to the markets. There's a daily uptrend line in the gold shares that has held for now. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. It's getting near the end of August and things could slow down next week. But that's a guess. The new option cycle will begin and things will be pricey on the premiums. I'll keep an eye on things and we'll go from there.

Another day to the upside as the Dow gained 61 points. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was light and a re-check of yesterdays volume shows that it was light as well. I never really trust light volume rallies. That could be a problem here. Perhaps we will get a higher high with a lower RSI after all. No OEX trades for now but I will be looking to the September puts at this point. Gold gained $5 today and the XAU rose 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM again had fractional gains on light volume. Hard to say where gold is headed from here. We are oversold but working it off slowly. If the overall market does drop, the gold shares will probably go with it. That said, I am leaving in an open order to purchase some ABX September calls. Oil was strong again today with the dollar weaker and gold didn't do as much. Perhaps I'll wait for the gold/XAU signal. We'll have to see how things play out. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I have noticed that the Bollinger bands are converging on the OEX. This usually portends a dramatic move one way or the other. My thinking is that it will be to the downside but it's anybodies guess. 2 days left this week and no August option cycle trades. Patience cannot be underrated.

Support has held for now as the Dow gained 82 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were up from the start and then remained higher, moving sideways for the rest of the day. 3 days left in the August option cycle and I don't think I'll be making a trade. Summation index now pointing down, which does imply lower prices. But you never know. Looking more oversold here than I thought, so I don't expect a break of the 980 level on the S&P 500 this week. I could be wrong. Gold was up around $3 today and the XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I would still like to get long the gold shares as we are oversold. I'll be looking at the ABX September and October calls. That's the plan for now. Dollar a bit weaker today. Oil had a good day and gold did not really follow. I'm going to try and remain patient here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm going to try my best not to do anything stupid for the rest of the week. It could be that we get a slowdown in the markets here as it is the end of the summer. That hasn't been the case as of yet this year. But there is that possibility. On to tomorrow.

A downer Monday as the Dow followed the global markets lower and lost 186 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index has rolled over and the path of least resistance is downward. We are right at support on the S&P 500 at the 980 level. The next level would be in the 950 area if we don't hold up here. My guess is that we will get to 950 sooner or later. I think that it's too late for the August OEX puts. Gold took a hit as well, off $12. The XAU fell 6 3/4. ABX and GG were both off around a buck, while NEM fell over 1 1/2. Volume was light. We are oversold here. I'm thinking of trying the ABX or GG calls for a bounce here this week. It's risky with only 4 days to go but it could be worth the effort. I'll look at things tonight and then decide. The dollar gained ground today as well. So we'll see. I don't have the Gold/XAU signal yet but it may not be far off. When that occurs it will be time to get some longer term gold share calls. I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm doing OK. Did not feel well last night but all is better today. Once again decisions have to be made and I've got to be up for the challenge. It is expiration week, so anything can happen. Of course staying on the sidelines is always an option. I'll run through things tonight and go from there.

The market never waits as we were down 76 points today. A late comeback cut the loss in half. Volume was light and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I may still get the OEX puts next week but it's a tough call now that we've dropped. There's also the possibility that we get an option expiration week run up in the averages. Todays action implies higher prices near term. I'll ponder things over the weekend. Gold was down $7 and the XAU lost 3 points. ABX lost 1/3, while GG and NEM were off over 3/4. Volume was light. Gold has been moving sideways and has held up rather good so far here. But we haven't had a real market decline either. The dollar was a bit higher today. I'd like to get long some ABX calls at some point. The question is when? The chart looks promising on a weekly basis for a breakout. And if and when it starts to move, I think it will be substantial. It's a waiting game for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. One week left on the August option cycle. It's risky for me here. The short term trades with not much time left usually burn me. However there will be opportunity. It's a matter of if I'm up to the challenge. More to think about over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 36 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I'm still looking at the OEX puts for the beginning of next week. If the market moves in the scenario that I expect, I'll give it a shot. Tomorrow should be an up day if all goes well. We then may get a divergence on the RSI. That's the idea at the moment. Gold was up 4 bucks and the gold shares followed with the XAU gaining 4 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up by 2/3 on light volume. At one point I placed an order for some ABX calls but canceled it later. The technical indicators for the gold shares have started to move higher. It is a trade that could perhaps work. However my thinking is that with 6 days left and my scenario for a falling market coming up, this may not be the best trade at the moment. The dollar was weaker today however and the gold shares did outperform gold itself. I didn't want to take the risk here, I'll wait for the OEX. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough for a change. So we'll see what the inflation data does to the markets and go from there. It could be that I sit out the August option cycle as well.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 120 points on Fed day. Volume was average, while the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were up even higher but sold off at the end. The Fed offered no surprises and now that is out of the way. More data to come including inflation numbers on Friday. I still feel the upside is limited here and sideways could be the rule until September. I will purchase some OEX puts if we make a higher high with a lower RSI. Possibly in the beginning of next week but we will have to see what the market does from here. Gold was up $5 on the futures and sold off a touch after the Fed. The XAU was up a point. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves on light volume. There is no interest in the gold shares at the moment. My feeling is that could be the case for the rest of the month. I could be wrong. We are getting oversold on the gold shares so I'll keep an eye on them. Mentally I'm doing OK. A bit tired as I did not sleep well. I'm trying to be patient here. If we get a set up for the OEX puts, I'll give it a try. Otherwise it may be prudent to just step aside and let the August option cycle play itself out. Time will tell.

The Dow continued lower today, down 96 points on average volume. Advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 negative. This action should start to turn the summation index lower. It doesn't mean we'll get a full scale decline just yet but I think it does mean that the upside is limited from here at this time. If we get a rally from here, I'll try the OEX puts before expiration. All eyes and ears are on the Fed tomorrow. Gold was little changed today while the XAU lost 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all down on light volume today, with GG leading the way. We are oversold here on the gold shares and I might buy some calls tomorrow before the Fed announcement. It would have to be a short term trade because if the market falls as I expect, the gold shares will probably fall with it. Mentally I'm doing OK. I have to cut things short today due to an appointment. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I'll check the charts tonight and determine if a play is warranted.

The Dow lost 32 points on this summer Monday. Advance/declines were average and the so was the volume. We were lower but came back some in the last hour. Basically waiting on the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Summation index still moving higher. I'm thinking of getting some OEX puts this week. I don't believe the summation index can get much higher here but I could be wrong and often am. If we make a higher high on the OEX and the RSI doesn't confirm it, I'll try the puts. So we'll see. Gold had a bad day for the bullish side and was down $12. The XAU lost 3 points. ABX down 1/2, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar was up again today and it looks like we could have a legitimate short term bottom in the dollar. Time will tell. If that's the case there is no reason to rush into the gold shares here. However when we get oversold for ABX, I'm going to try the calls. There is an uptrend line about 2 points away from where we are now. If the indicators are oversold and we reach that uptrend line, then the trade will be to purchase the September calls. That's the idea at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. 9 days left before the August expiration. The market still feels as if it wants to go higher. Sell offs do not have any legs of late. Why even try the OEX puts then? Good question. Perhaps it's just another in the many bad ideas I've had so far this year. We'll see.

Back in rally mode for Friday as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume. Advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The employment report wasn't as bad as expected. We were even higher than that earlier in the day. Summation index continues higher but it is about as high as it can go in my opinion. The market will go where it wants. The next event is the Fed announcement on Wednesday. So we'll see. I'm thinking about some OEX puts next week. Gold lost another $3 on the futures and the XAU fell 3 3/4. Considering the strong move in the dollar, gold held up pretty well. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around a buck on light volume. I suppose I'll have to wait for a signal there. I need to check the charts over the weekend. Perhaps the September option cycle will work there for the calls but that's a guess. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. So here we are in the beginning of August with an incredible up move for the stock market still going strong. Will there be no summer doldrums? Apparently not. 2 weeks left on this option cycle. I'll ponder things over the weekend and go from there. Perhaps sitting out the August cycle will be the correct path. We'll see. A summer weekend is here. Time to relax.

A slight drop today as the Dow lost 25 points. We were lower than that on the day after opening on a positive note. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was pretty good again. That makes 2 days of good volume on the decline. Interesting. The summation index continues higher but as I said yesterday, it's about as high as it goes. The employment report will key tomorrows action and next week we have the Fed. No OEX trades for me at the moment. Gold didn't do much today, down a bit. The XAU was off a touch. ABX, GG and NEM again had fractional moves one way or the other. Volume was light. The dollar gained ground today and the gold shares held up pretty good. That could be bullish. It all depends on how gold reacts to tomorrows developments. I might be convinced to get long the gold shares before the August expiration. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'd really like to put on some type of trade here but I'm not really seeing any decent set-ups. It's a tough game. It's hard to stay out sometimes but it has to be done. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

A slight pullback as the Dow dropped 39 points. Advance/declines were negative. Volume looks like it picked up. All eyes waiting for Fridays employment report. The summation index is at its highest point that I can remember. It is due to start to drop. I do not expect a ton of upside from here. Considering how overbought we are and how long that condition has lasted, I have to be careful here about the bullish cause. We may just move sideways and not have a decent drop. We'll see but caution for the upside is my mantra here. It may keep me from playing the gold shares right now. Gold lost $3 today and the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares sold off early but came all the way back. The dollar continues weaker. It's possible that the dollar could take a hit after the employment report. That's a guess. I'm on the sidelines here for now. Could change tomorrow for all I know but probably not. Mentally I'm OK. Looking for a trade here but don't want to do anything stupid. I'll check things again tonight and go from there. So we'll see.

Continuing higher, it's like a broken record. The Dow gained 33 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Tried to sell off but the market only knows one way at the moment and it's up. Oversold, staying there and you start to get the feeling that the market will never go down again. But we know better than that. Can't fight the tape here but the summation index is getting far too extended. So we'll see what happens. Gold continues higher, up another $10 today. The XAU was flat though. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves either side of unchanged. Volume was light. The dollar stabilized today. I still might try the gold shares if we get some pullback. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. How much longer can the summer rally go on? That is the question. There doesn't seem to be anything to stop it at the moment. Perhaps the employment report on Friday but who knows? I'll continue to keep an eye on how things develop.

Beginning of the month money flows helped the Dow to a gain of 115 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Summation index continues higher but we are getting to levels that would suggest at least a sideways movement in the summation index. That doesn't mean the market will drop, it could continue higher with a sideways summation index. Employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $3 but the XAU gained almost 5. ABX up over a buck, while GG gained 3/4 and NEM rose 1/2. The dollar got clobbered again today but gold itself didn't rise proportionately. I still like the gold shares and am thinking of getting the August calls even though we've moved off the recent lows. I did place an overnight order that wasn't filled. The weekly dollar chart looks like it is in the final wave down of a 5 wave move. There is probably some more room to go on the downside for the dollar here. August is also historically in the past 30 years one of the better months for gold. The weekly stochastic has moved back to the upside for the gold shares as well. So we'll see. Perhaps I'll go out to September. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. The market continues in rally mode, with only the slightest of pullbacks. Hard to fight that. It hasn't been a slow summer as I had anticipated. I'll be looking to put on some type of trade this week as things stand right now. So we'll see. I'll check the charts again tonight.

We closed out the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 17 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We should trend higher here. Summation index still to the upside. Plenty of time in the August option cycle but no trades for now. Gold had a good day as the dollar got clobbered. The precious metal gained $18 and the XAU rose 5 1/2. ABX was up a buck or so while GG and NEM gained 1 1/2. Volume was better than it has been. Will I get long the gold shares then? Perhaps. I'll have to look at things over the weekend. There's something about the volume that is lacking though. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. However my focus seems to be lacking. Whether it's the fact that we are in the middle of summer or that my trading thus far this year has sucked, I don't know. The game isn't easy. I'm doing the work as usual but my conviction on trades isn't there at the moment. I'll need to get it together before I attempt the next trade. But for now it's a summer weekend and time for a break.

The rally lives on as the Dow gained 83 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The market could not sell off the previous 2 sessions and higher prices were in order. We cut todays gain in half but it was still pretty good. GDP numbers tomorrow and the end of the month. Prices should be supported by money flows going into the middle of next week. You can't fight it. Gold was up $7 and the XAU gained 4. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher, with ABX leading the way up a buck. The earnings didn't mean much really as the gold shares followed the overall market and the weakness in the dollar. Oil rallied as well. I'm going to wait on the gold shares though, until we are oversold. Not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. No clear signal for the OEX here but most technicals are overbought and have been for a while now. Summation index still moving to the upside. I'm on the sidelines for the near future. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Again, the market just refuses to sell off here. The Dow lost 26 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were off about 90 at one point. Buyers continue to surface. Summation index still heading higher. End of the month on Friday. I would expect us to move higher now in the near term. Gold lost around another $10 today as the dollar gained strength. The XAU fell 4 points. ABX and GG were both off more than 1/2, while NEM dropped a buck. Volume was nothing special. Earnings tomorrow and I thought about trading some ABX calls but didn't. The technicals have turned bearish for now on the gold shares. I'll be looking at them again when they are oversold. It's tempting to try and play the earnings for ABX and GG but it isn't really the prudent thing to do. It is much more likely to be successful by waiting for the proper technical set up. Oil got hit hard today as well and it looks like the commodity trade is done for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So it looks like we have a stock market that is working off its overbought position on its way to heading higher. That's my guess at the moment.

Tried to sell off today but the market is resilient. The Dow lost 11 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were off 100 at one point. The trend remains to the upside for now. Approaching the end of the month. No trades in the OEX for now. Gold took a hit today, off $15. The XAU dropped 6 points. ABX down 1 1/2, GG lost 2 1/4 and NEM fell 1 1/4. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. Not sure what to make of it but the dollar had a reversal to the upside. Oil was weaker as well. Still have the earnings to contend with for ABX and GG on Thursday. I'm on the sidelines. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Still a bit gun shy here with all the bad trades of the year still simmering in my mind. The mental game is always tough. Somehow have to move on and keep going. I'm trying my best. Confidence is a key as I've said before. So we'll see what happens.

Not much happening today as the Dow gained 15 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Today was classic summertime lack of activity. We're overbought, staying there and are really due for some type of pullback. I'd like to make a trade but don't see anything worth doing at the moment. Gold was pretty much flat and the XAU lost 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume. Earnings out on Thursday. I could try a play before then but I'm not sure. The dollar lost some ground today but it didn't do anything for gold. No gold trades for now but that could change. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So here we are at the end of July following a huge rally. Where do we go from here? Summation index still heading higher. The trend is up. As overbought as I can remember. I'm on the sidelines until further notice.

Can nothing stop this market? The Dow picked up another 24 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The Dow has been up 9 of the last 10 days. You can't fight that. Summation index heading up. Very overbought and staying there. There are still 4 weeks to go on the August options. I gave the puts a try and failed. I suppose it's the sidelines for a while now. But we'll see. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I haven't liked the volume all the way up on this rise for the gold shares. Earnings next week for ABX and GG. I may try the puts after the earnings announcement. After earnings, what is left to move these stocks higher? I'll think about it over the weekend. The dollar was lower today but it didn't do much for gold. Mentally I'm a bit tired, have not been sleeping well lately. There haven't been any summer doldrums this year so far. I was wrong on that call. It looks like that we have broken through resistance with volume this week. That fact cannot be ignored. The market will be looking to go higher. I'm going to have to look things over this weekend and go from there. I have been in quite a slump though. Perhaps I'll have to take the rest of the summer off. Probably not though. It's a summertime weekend and time for a rest.

We broke out to the upside today as the Dow gained 188 points on heavier volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. It's hard for me to believe how overbought we are. And staying there. It's the exact opposite of when we tanked last year by staying oversold beyond comprehension. So it goes. I dumped the OEX puts for a 50% loss. Now tomorrow we will probably get the down move I have been waiting for. MSFT just missed on its earnings and could set the tone for tomorrow. Gold was up a buck and the XAU gained about a buck. ABX and GG had fractional gains on good volume for lately. NEM lost 1/4 on bad earnings. Volume was nothing special. The dollar was flat today. Overbought on the gold shares and I'm on the sidelines. Mentally I'm doing OK. The OEX trade I just did was really stupid. My trading thus far this year is ridiculous. I've got to somehow right the ship, turn things around and get my act together. When I didn't take the buy signal last week, we soared. When I took the sell signal this week, we just continued higher. It's the toughest game in the world sometimes. I'm going to have to work harder and keep at it though.

A slight breather today as the Dow lost 34 points on what passes for average volume these days. Advance/declines were positive. It was a mixed market for sure. My OEX puts are still losers and I am looking to dump them before the end of the week. Still overbought here. Gold was up $6 and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses. Earnings are out next week. Perhaps I'll get some calls before then. It's been a light volume rally in the gold shares and I don't really trust it. But we'll see what happens. Mentally I had to leave halfway through todays session which doesn't usually happen. This was another day off that I took, a partial day. But the market doesn't care. I still believe that we are up against resistance and that there has to be a decent down day now. We'll see.

The rally will never end at this rate as the Dow gained another 68 points today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. We sold off during the day and came all the back and then some. The OEX puts I bought yesterday are in the red. We are so overbought now that I can't imagine going that much higher here without some type of pullback but the market will do whatever it takes to make the majority wrong. Am I in the majority? Maybe. Gold was off a touch and the XAU fell about a point. ABX, GG and NEM were little changed on average volume. I guess I'll call it average for now because it has been light all the way on this up move and that could be the new average. I don't know. The gold shares tried to sell off today as well and came back too. Mentally I'm doing OK, finally got a good nights sleep. It looks like I'm in another losing trade here. Now really, what was I thinking? An extra week in the August option cycle and I'm buying them right in the beginning. The signal was there and it isn't working yet. We are way overbought and at long term resistance. I cannot believe that we are not about to get some type of drop here. So we'll see what happens.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We are short term overbought and will be medium term also after tomorrow. I bought some OEX puts near the close today. I'm expecting a pull back here and it could be pretty good but it's a one to two day trade with potential of 20% to 30%. When I got a signal last week on the upside I didn't do anything. Now there is an opposite signal and I'm going for it. I hopefully have the discipline to get out. We'll see. Gold had another good day as the dollar weakened and was up $11. ABX, GG and NEM were all a buck higher on light volume. The gold shares are looking good, no doubt about that. The only fly in the ointment has been the volume but it is summer. You cannot deny the price action though and it has been substantial. I still regret missing the move but if we get a pullback, who knows? Mentally I am extremely tired, have not been sleeping well and very busy outside of the markets. It is summer and I really need to get back into the swing of things. The doldrums I had been anticipating are not happening. I hope todays trade wasn't some kind of dumb idea just because I've been hanging around with a hedge fund manager all weekend. Not to mention I'm overly tired. So we'll see what happens.

A relatively quiet expiration as the Dow gained 31 points. Volume was average for lately and the advance/declines were negative. It was a very good week but we are now overbought and I would expect weakness at the beginning of next week. We'll have to see what happens after that. Longer term resistance is approaching. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU gained 2. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by 1/4-3/4. The volume was very light though. I expect we'll pull back here as well next week. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. Short post today as I have appointments this afternoon. Summertime. I would like to add that the action next week will tell if this was just an expiration week wonder or something more significant. Stay tuned.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 95 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Summation index heading higher. It really has been an incredible move to the upside this week. The reported earnings are better than expected, which happens when the expectations are low. We are overbought here so I would expect some type of pullback soon. Where we go after that is anybodies guess. We are at 440 on the OEX and resistance is at 450. So we'll see. Gold was down $4 but the XAU followed the overall market higher, up over a buck. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares have moved back to outperforming the metal itself and that's usually bullish. The dollar was weaker today. Perhaps I'll look at the gold share calls again on any weakness. However there is an extra week in the August option cycle which will keep the premiums high. Mentally I'm tired and I did sleep pretty good. I'm not in a good spot mentally really. No confidence and just missed an excellent opportunity this past week. I can't dwell on it and I'll try not to but it's tough. You've just gotta keep moving along in the game. That's what makes it tough but as usual the battle is always with oneself. On to expiration Friday.

The rally continues and it appears to be for real as the Dow gained 256 points. Advance/declines look to be about 8 to 1 and the volume was better than it has been. No sellers, only buyers. The summation index is back to the upside. Quite an expiration week so far. We closed near the highs again. Now this is a summer rally but we've come pretty far, pretty fast. Overbought on the short term now but it may not mean anything. We'll see. Gold had a real good day as well, up $16 as the dollar got weaker. The XAU rose 6 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a buck with GG leading the way. Volume picked up a bit from lately as well. The weekly USD chart could be beginning the final leg down of a five wave pattern. If so, gold should have a decent multi-week rally here. So the gold shares could be a buy for me on weakness. Or it might be too late. Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK considering I've missed this move. Slept pretty good. You've always got to keep moving along in the game. Frustration is part of it and like I said yesterday confidence is very important. Being able to take advantage of opportunities is key. I haven't been able to do that thus far this year. I'll need to work harder and pay better attention. Getting some confidence back wouldn't hurt either.

We started out a bit lower and closed higher again. The Dow was up 27 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We also closed at the high of the day. Todays action should turn the summation index back to the upside. Perhaps the worst is over in the stock market for now. We'll see. Obviously buying calls on Monday continues to look good. Gold was little changed on the day but the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX was up 7/8, GG and NEM gained 2/3. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. I'll be getting long the gold shares eventually. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired. Tomorrow looks like it could open higher since INTC just reported better than expected earnings. But that remains to be seen. Expiration week as well and so far there has been a positive bias. Not much else to say here, it's just a summer Tuesday.

It was a good day for the market as the Dow gained 185 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. It looks as though the 880 level on the S&P 500 will hold for now. We broke through and did not collapse. Now we are comfortably back above that level. This morning would have been a good time to purchase some OEX calls. But my mind was in summer mode. Another opportunity missed. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The XAU was higher by 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside and closed near their highs. Volume was average for lately. On day reversals here as well as the gold shares were much lower early and came all the way back. Probably would have been a good day to get some calls here too. But who knows? The gold shares could have done better with a $10 move in gold. I'm going to wait for the September calls to come out. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I did not sleep well. So we had a good day to the upside today and there are plenty of earnings to contend with this week. I wasn't properly prepared for todays action and I think it was a result of having such a bad first half of the year. Confidence is everything. Mine is lacking at the moment. We'll have to see where we go into the expiration. I don't think this is the beginning of another long term rally but I could be wrong and often am.

Kind of a lackluster day as the Dow lost 36 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. A summer Friday. The NASDAQ was in positive territory and we are very oversold both short and medium term. I would be surprised if Monday was not an upside day. But the market will go where it wants and I've been pretty wrong about things for half the year. Gold lost $3 and the XAU was off 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves on light volume. The dollar was a bit stronger. We are oversold on the gold shares but I'm still in a waiting mode for a position there. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So it's the weekend and time to catch up on the charts. Option expiration is next week and I have no plans for a trade at the moment. Summation index still pointing down. My scenario would be for higher prices early in the week and then selling off from there. But that's a guess. So we'll see what happens. Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up and down today as the market tries to make up its mind what to do. We ended with a gain of 4 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were positive and the volume went back to being light. I get the feeling that the market is doing what it can to just hold on here. We are oversold though. However the summation index continues to the downside. I guess I'm trying to make up my mind as well. No OEX trades for now. Option expiration is next week. Gold bounced back $7 today and the XAU rose a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Oversold here as well but I'm in no hurry to get long after yesterdays action. The dollar got pounded today as well and gold didn't move that much. It isn't a bullish sign. I'm going to have to be patient here and as I've said before that isn't the easiest thing to do. Mentally I'm feeling tired after yesterdays mini vacation. It is summer and things tend to be slow down. So it's sit and wait for now.

Well we managed a gain of 14 points today on the Dow. Volume picked up. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We were lower for most of the day and made a last hour comeback. The market is oversold here and due for some upside but I don't think it will be much. But I could be wrong. We did breach the 880 level on the S&P 500 but have already snapped all the way back. No OEX trades for now but I'd be cautious one way or the other. Gold got rocked today, down $20. The XAU lost 4 1/4. ABX lost 1 1/4, GG a buck and NEM almost 1 1/2. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. That's not a good sign for the bullish case. The $920 support level for gold broke down. We are getting oversold on the gold shares though and I would like to own some calls at some point. But I think I'll wait for now. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good. I actually took a day off today and got out of town. It was a nice break in the action. It is summertime. I'll have another day off in 2 weeks. Looking at todays action the market had every reason to head lower and it didn't. Perhaps because of the oversold condition but in the past if we were really going to head lower it wouldn't matter. So perhaps a near term rally is in the offing. As I said earlier though, I can't see it going very far. But it's all a guess. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

No summer doldrums today as the Dow lost 161 points on average volume. Advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. We are at the moment of truth here with the S&P 500 trying to hold what I consider key support at 880. The summation index is pointing down. Tomorrow could be interesting. I don't think that I'll be putting on any OEX trades but who knows? Gold was up $4 but sold off a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 3/4, which wasn't too bad considering the negative day in equities. ABX was off 1/3, while GG and NEM were little changed. Volume was light. I would like to wait for the September options to come on board but that is a week and a half away. Just about oversold in the gold shares though. Sometimes patience is the hardest thing to do. Mentally I'm feeling alright, could have slept more. I'm going to try and not do anything stupid here but you never know. If we don't hold up here at 880 on the S&P, we will be going much lower in my opinion. But it hasn't broken down yet. So I'll watch and wait.

The Dow gained 44 points on this summer Monday. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It was a positive one day reversal as we opened lower and closed higher. Not a lot of data out this week so it should be pretty slow. But you never know when it comes to the market. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $8 and the XAU dropped 5 3/4. The gold shares continue to under perform the price of gold. ABX off a buck, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM dipped 3/4. Volume summer light as has been the case. Gold was down and the dollar didn't really do much. However oil was weaker and that could be the root of the cause. Commodities in general are being sold at the moment. So I'm going to try and be patient with the gold shares here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. And so it goes. The long weekend is over and we are in summer doldrums mode. Not the best of trading environments. If and when there is a decent signal, I'll try and act on it. Until then it's a game of watching and waiting.

We ended the short week on a down note as the Dow lost 223 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The employment report came in worse than expected. We are getting to short term oversold. However the volume lately has been non existent. There are no buyers. I can't see anything changing that over the summer unless earnings are much better than expected. But it is the market and anything can happen. Summation index with no clear direction at the moment. Gold lost $10 and the XAU shed 4 1/2. ABX and GG lost around 3/4, while NEM dropped 2. Volume light here as well. The dollar was higher even though the jobs situation got worse. More of a flight to safety for the dollar with todays market drop. What it all means for gold going forward is anybodies guess. I still like the gold shares going out to August or September. The next buy signal I see there I will try and take advantage of. The indicators are not oversold as of yet. So it's a waiting game. Mentally I'm a bit tired did not sleep as much. The holiday weekend has arrived and it's time to take it easy for a while. We need to hold at around 880 on the S&P 500 or I fear that the decline will be more than what we've seen so far. Not sure if we will hold up or not. Doesn't feel like it after a day like today. The lack of volume doesn't help things for the bullish cause either. But for now it's time to relax and take a break.

The Dow gained 57 points today on the cusp of the employment report. Volume was light and the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were up over 100 at one point. The breadth here is encouraging but the volume isn't. It is summer though. The summation index is starting to move sideways here as well as the market. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. I really don't know what to expect. Gold had a good day, up the $13 we lost yesterday. The XAU gained over 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all back up around 1 1/2. Volume was light though. The dollar did lose some ground. One of my thoughts is that the employment report comes out weaker than expected and the dollar gets hit thus supporting gold. Then the dollar gets sold off even more with the holiday here in the US on Friday. That's all just a guess. I also thought that yesterdays sell-off in the gold shares was just end of the month activity and that may prove to be correct. But I didn't act on it. It's tough for me to take a stand here with the volume so anemic. So there's no rush to do anything at the moment but that could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We'll wrap up the week tomorrow and then take a long weekend. It seems as though the market has really slowed down here and that is expected for the summer. But summer has just begun and at this rate it could be a long one.

We ended the month, quarter and first half of the year on a down note today as the Dow lost 82 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. July begins tomorrow and I would expect some positive money flows into the market. The employment report comes out on Thursday. We'll have to see what happens. We worked off some of the short term overbought conditions today. If the recent activity or lack there of is any indication of what we have to look forward to this summer, it will be slower than slow. Not a great trading environment. Gold took a hit today and was off $13. The XAU lost 4 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around 1 1/2 on light volume. So is this an opportunity to get long the gold shares again? That is the question. The dollar was a bit stronger today. It's a tough call. If I do something here I should probably go out to the August option contracts. But again, it could just be a slow and boring summer trading season. It would be hard to make any money in that type of scenario. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'll be keeping an eye on the gold shares and the overall market going forward. But as of now it will take a pretty good set up or signal for me to take a stand.

The Dow gained 91 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. Today had summer written all over it. No volume and even though it was a good up day, it may not mean anything. Short week and the employment report on Thursday due to the holiday. We are overbought on the short term here but not medium term as yet. No trades in the OEX here for me. Gold was flat and so were the gold shares with the XAU barely changed. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar didn't do much either. Yes, I'd like to go long the gold shares if they pull back. But it is summer and huge moves are not expected, really. My thinking is that perhaps just sitting on the sidelines might be the prudent thing to do. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired did not sleep well. So here we are and the best course of action may be to do nothing for a while. That isn't always easy to do. I suppose I will simply wait and see what happens. You don't lose any money but you don't make any either. I don't have a sense of urgency to do anything though. And even when I have had a sense of urgency I haven't been able to pull through on it lately.

The Dow lost 34 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. Market breadth is telegraphing higher prices going forward. The overall market is stronger than the Dow. Let me say this about volume. It's light but that is expected for the summer. So what passes for average volume is really lighter than usual. And if it is light, it is really light. End of the month and quarter next week. Also a holiday week. I doubt that I'll be looking to take a position on but you never know. Gold was up a buck or so and the XAU lost 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was weaker and it didn't do anything for gold. However the gold shares had a great week so we'll see if there is any follow through to the upside next week. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good for a change. Got a decent nights sleep. It's a summer weekend on the horizon. I'll go over the charts this weekend and go from there. For now it's time for a break.

Finally we saw a decent up move today. The Dow rose 172 points on average volume. Advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. This is what I was expecting a couple of days ago. There had to be a good positive move to the upside since we were so oversold. It took longer than I thought. The key is where we go from here. Perhaps it is the beginning of the summer rally. We'll have to see what the summation index reads later tonight. It's possible that the recent decline has ended. Gold was up $5 and the XAU rose 5 3/4 points. ABX and GG were both up about 1 1/2, while NEM gained a buck. Volume was light but you can't argue with price. I've missed yet another opportunity in the gold shares. It is beginning to sound like a broken record. I did have an order to buy in Monday night but it wasn't to be. The gold shares are leading gold here and I think this rally is for real despite the light volume. Perhaps the Monday decline was the downside blow off. It is frustrating to miss out on profits but you have to keep moving. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. So where do I go from here? End of the month coming up next week and it's a short week too. I suppose that I'll just wait it out on the sidelines for now. It is the toughest game in the world and I've been playing it very poorly. Confidence is one of the keys and mine is shot right now. And on it goes. We'll see if there is follow through to the upside tomorrow.

We got the Fed out of the way as the Dow lost 23 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. I am surprised that we haven't seen a big up move from these oversold levels. It's worrisome I think. If we can't get a decent move to the upside when we are very oversold it could mean trouble. But I could be wrong. It's interesting to say the least. We'll see what happens. Gold was up $10 today and the XAU rose 4 points. ABX up 1/2, GG up a buck and NEM up 3/4. Volume was average for lately. I canceled my open order for the ABX August calls. I'll perhaps try again in the future. The gold shares have begun to outperform gold again and that is positive for them going forward. GG seems to be giving the most bang for the buck as of now. The dollar was a bit stronger today and gold rose anyway. I'll keep an eye on things. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. I'm wary of where we go from here. Summation index still pointing down. Not much data coming out for the rest of this week, so I suspect things may slow down from here. It's summertime. On to tomorrow.

It's a waiting game as the Dow lost 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. All eyes are on the Fed announcement tomorrow. I don't know what will be said but we are oversold and I expect a decent bounce as I said yesterday. I would be very surprised if we were not up pretty good tomorrow. But hey, it's the market and anything can happen. Gold was up about $3 and the XAU rose 5 1/3. The gold shares outperformed. Perhaps it's a sign of things to come. Or not. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1 1/2 on light volume. My order for ABX calls wasn't filled and I'm leaving it open for now. The dollar got whacked today and I would have liked to have seen a better move in gold itself. That could mean that a rise in gold is in the future and not something imminent. But that's a guess. It is the summer too and a slowdown in everything can be expected. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So it's the Fed tomorrow and after that there isn't anything else to move things this week. Next week is short with the end of the month and quarter followed by the July 4th holiday. So perhaps it's a time to just sit on your hands and wait for a good signal. The problem is that I think we are getting one for the gold shares at the moment. So we'll see.

An interesting Monday as the Dow got clobbered and lost 200 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. We are now very oversold here. I would expect a decent bounce in the next couple of days. Summation index still pointing down though. Fed announcement on Wednesday and that will most likely be a market mover. The S&P 500 needs to hold 880 or this will be a big decline. That's my outlook at the moment. Gold was off about $15 and the XAU followed, off 10 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all down over $2. Volume was light. The dollar was a bit stronger. I placed an overnight order for some ABX August calls. ABX is oversold and could be at the end of 5 wave down move. We are also just about at an important Gold/XAU ratio number. I could be wrong. A lot depends on the wording of the Fed. That's part of the play here as well. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling good after a nice weekend. Plenty of rest and now it's back to the game. Sometimes the market acts strange the Monday after expiration. That could explain today as well. So we'll see where we go from here but a bounce is expected.

A mild expiration Friday as the Dow lost 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Now it's a waiting game for the Fed rate announcement on Wednesday. Summation index still pointing down. I'll be on the sidelines as far as I can tell for now. Gold was up a buck but the XAU rose 4 points. Perhaps now we have reached the end of the move down in the gold shares. But that's just a guess and my guesses have been pretty poor lately. ABX was up 3/4, GG up over a buck and NEM added 1/2. Volume was light. Technically the gold shares are oversold on a daily basis, neutral on a weekly basis. There is unrest in Iran and the dollar was weaker today but gold itself didn't do anything. I will try the gold shares again at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept enough for a change. Losses are part of the game. You have to brush yourself off and keep on going. That's what I'm going to do. The first 6 months this year have been horrendous for me but there is still half the year left. I don't have any trades on the horizon at the moment. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Summer is upon us and the markets have a tendency to slow down. The first 2 weeks of June were like that. I'll try and keep that in mind going forward. It's a summer weekend and time to relax.

Well we did have a positive day as the Dow rose 58 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. I was really expecting something like a 100 point up day. But we didn't get it. Perhaps it means that the market is weaker than I thought. Summation index pointing down and you can't fight that at the moment. Expiration tomorrow and I suppose anything can happen. We haven't had a lot of volatility though. Gold was off a couple bucks and the XAU lost 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The shares were higher early in the day but sold off. I dumped the GG calls for about an 80% loss. Not a lot of money in that trade thankfully. It was break even for about 30 seconds in the morning and then dropped fast. I blew it once again. Perhaps I was a bit too tired but whatever the excuse my trading has failed lately. The dollar was stronger today but gold itself didn't sell off that much. We'll have to see what that means going forward. Mentally I'm still in a funk. It's been a tough first half of the year and I need to regroup. The markets won't wait for me though. Summer is here and the trading could get pretty slow. I suppose it will give me a chance to get it together for the second half of the year. It won't be easy but it can be done.

A back and forth type of day as the Dow lost 7 points on better volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold and I would have to say that tomorrow will be positive. I would be surprised if we did not end up for the day. That said, the summation index is pointing down. 2 days to go before expiration so perhaps we'll get some volatility. Gold was up $3 but the XAU lost 3/4. The gold shares were down for most of the day and ended up little changed. Volume was light. The gold shares tracked the overall market. The dollar was weaker and it didn't move things to the upside. That is troublesome. I've still got the GG calls that are losers. They are out of the money and I'm lucky they even have a bid really. It's going to take a big move in gold just to have a small loss here. I'm only holding them at this point because I expect strength in the stock market tomorrow. It just wasn't a good trade but it could have been. I've seen crazy things happen in gold though so we'll see. But it's dead. Mentally I'm tired once again as it has been a get up early type of week. I don't see any trades on the horizon when I'm through with this one and it may be time to step back and take a break. It is summer after all. We'll see.

Another downer as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The index lost 107 points on light volume again. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The trend appears to have changed. The summation index has rolled over. We will be short and medium term oversold if we are lower again tomorrow. I expect a decent move to the upside within the next 2 days. It will be just a bounce if it occurs. I don't think I'll try and play it but perhaps. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU only gained 2/3. We were much higher early on in the day which gave me a chance to sell the GG calls at a profit but I held on. It was foolish to be sure. ABX was up 1/2, GG up 3/4 and NEM barely managed a gain. They were all higher early as we got the bounce that I anticipated. But I didn't sell the calls when I should have. It is a repeat of the previous trade where I knew that action on my part was required and I couldn't pull it off. My trading is definitely in a funk. Back to gold, the dollar was weaker today despite good economic news. Inflation data out again tomorrow. Mentally I'm tired, not enough sleep again. Very disappointed in my performance today. I think that the short term trades just aren't my style at the moment. You really have to be sharp and right now I am dull. I should probably stick with the position trades because they don't move as fast. Especially right now when my trading is horrible as I've stated before. This year has been tough on me for sure as we approach the halfway mark. 3 days left on the options and I don't have a good feeling about how this GG trade is going to end.

Finally some movement in the averages as the Dow dropped 187 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. I've been waiting for this downdraft for 2 weeks and it has finally arrived. I don't think we are going to just head straight down from here but you never know. Of course now I don't own the OEX puts. But what can you do? Gold lost over $13 and the XAU shed 5 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all down a bit over a buck. Volume was nothing special. I bought some GG calls for this week. We are oversold on most of the technical indicators and at the lower Bollinger band. The 50 day moving average has just about been reached as well. This is strictly a short term trade. I'm out tomorrow if it can get into the black. Inflation data Tuesday and Wednesday. The dollar was very strong today and that along with the overall market weakness affected the gold shares. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling tired. Up early today and not enough sleep. Perhaps I should have just stayed on the sidelines but I think this trade has a chance. I could be wrong and have been often this year. So we'll see how things open tomorrow and go from there.

It was another lackluster day as the Dow gained 28 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. It seems as if the summer doldrums are upon us. It's been a sideways affair for a while now. No the best of trading times to be sure. I suppose the best strategy here would be to stay on the sidelines. Expiration week coming up and loads of data to boot. Perhaps we'll get some movement then. I'm thinking of doing something next week. We'll see. Gold took another hit today as the dollar rallied. The precious metal was down $20. The XAU fell 4 1/2. ABX was off 2/3 while GG and NEM each dropped more than a buck. Volume was light. I might try the gold shares next week as we are oversold and inflation news will be coming out. The trouble is that if inflation is higher than expected it could support the dollar and negate the positive influence on gold. It's just a guess. I'll have to mull things over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. Yesterdays loss is history and it is back to the drawing board. I think we'll be heading higher on Monday but after that , who knows? I'll be checking things over the weekend. The risk will be in focus more so next week since it is the expiration. But perhaps I can find something to take advantage of. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow rose 32 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were up 125 at one point but sold off in the last hour. I dumped the OEX puts for a 75% loss. I couldn't hold them any longer and should have just gotten out yesterday as I said before. It's always a battle with myself and it shouldn't be. It was the biggest dollar loss of the year so far. I would not be surprised if we go lower from here but the puts were too far out of the money with 6 days left. I might try again next week depending on what happens between now and then. A better strategy may be to just hit the sidelines. Gold was up $6 as the dollar took a pretty good hit. It was interesting that we didn't rise further. The XAU lost around 1/2. ABX and NEM were down 1/3 while GG gained that much. Volume was light as it has been lately. The dollar was down sharply and gold did not rally as it has lately. That says to me that gold is not about to start an up move here but I could be wrong. And have been a lot this year. Mentally I'm feeling OK even with taking the loss today. Expiration is next week and the risk is getting higher for the June cycle. We are almost through he first half of the year and my results have been terrible. I'll have to do better from here. We'll see about tomorrow and go from there.

The Dow lost 24 points today on better volume. Advance/declines were negative. A late day comeback occurred as we were down over 100 at one point. I put in a late limit order to sell the OEX puts but it doesn't look like it will get filled. I probably should have just bailed out at the market. We have basically been in a sideways going nowhere market. Puts or calls won't do well in such an environment. I can't wait forever on this trade and I'll have to bail out tomorrow. Gold was flat today and the XAU lost a point. ABX was off a buck while GG and NEM had fractional losses. Volume was good for ABX but light on the others. No gold trades for now but the gold shares are getting oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not happy with my reactions today as it looks like the market will just not sell off. Perhaps there is so much liquidity that has been pumped into the system that it has to go somewhere. I don't know what is keeping the market up at this point. Sideways is how we've been moving and perhaps that is the trend for the summer. Retail sales out tomorrow and that should be a mover. Unless we get a huge drop I'll be banking a loss.

Another day of indecision as the Dow lost a point on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. It appears the summer doldrums are upon us. The volume is lackluster at best. The lack of movement has killed my OEX puts. I should say lack of movement to the downside. I'm giving them until tomorrow and if we don't see something after the Fed minutes then I'm out for a loss. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU was flat. The dollar had a bad day but gold didn't move which could signal a change in perceptions here. ABX and GG were off about 1/2 while NEM was up 1/3. Volume light here as well. Nothing doing for gold for me now. I'm going to wait a while. I still like the gold shares again at some point. Mentally I'm doing OK. Could have slept more. Had computer issues today and that didn't help. Website specific problems. So it looks like another losing trade here and that's just the way it goes. 8 days until expiration and if I get out of this trade perhaps I'll try another. Loads of data out next week. Of course the risk ramps up as well. We'll see what happens tomorrow and take it from there.

We opened lower, were down over 100 points, came back in the last hour to be up 50 and closed the day up a point. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. We are basically moving sideways here and it's killing my OEX puts. They are now solidly in the red. An exit strategy is now in play. I would like to wait for the Fed minutes on Wednesday if possible. The negative RSI divergence is still in play but it hasn't meant anything yet. Gold was down again, off $10. The gold shares did not follow with the XAU up 1/2. The gold shares were much lower early in the day and came all the way back. ABX was up 1/2, GG and NEM were down but off their lows. Volume was light. Perhaps today was the day to try the calls there. The dollar was a bit higher today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So what to do now? I certainly can't sit in this trade forever. Tomorrows action should be interesting unless it is just another light volume sideways affair. We'll see. No real news coming out. Volume is slowing for now. So we'll see where it goes.

We were up, we were down and we ended up about where we started. The Dow gained 12 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. The employment report showed more job losses but not as much as expected. The market couldn't make up its mind what to do. My OEX puts are showing a loss and now the time factor is coming into play since they are so far out of the money. The RSI is still showing the negative divergence and I'm a believer in that. I'll ponder things over the weekend. Gold took another hit as the dollar had a good day on the job numbers. The precious metal lost $20 and the XAU dropped 6 3/4. ABX and GG lost 1 1/2, while NEM fell 2 1/2. Volume was average. The weekly charts for the gold shares will turn bearish for now. I'm still a believer in the gold shares but will stay on the sidelines until we get oversold. Perhaps the August or September options. Mentally I'm a bit tired did not sleep enough. I would have liked to have seen a sell off in the market today but it continues to hang on. The volume wasn't anything that great though. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The problem is that things could slow down and my OEX puts will wither away. I'll check to see what reports are coming out next week to be potential market movers and go from there. The weekend has arrived and it's time for a break.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 75 points. Volume looks to be about the same as yesterday. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It's beginning to look more like tomorrow could be an up day as there was no follow through to the downside today. My OEX puts are slightly in the red. I'm getting the feeling that this trade isn't going to work but we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. Still a negative divergence on the RSI as I explained yesterday. But that could change with another strong up day. Gold came back as well, up over $15. ABX, GG and NEM were all back up a buck or so. Volume was lighter however. That doesn't mean we can't go higher here but perhaps we are finally running out of steam. That's a guess and we'll just have to wait and see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Nothing left to do but wait for the employment report. We'll have to see the markets reaction. My puts are well out of the money so unless we see a drop in the market, it could be time to just dump them. 2 weeks to go after tomorrow. We'll see what Friday brings.

The Dow lost 65 points today on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We were down twice as much but came back in the last hour. The market is showing a lot of resilience here and perhaps the case for being short is the wrong one. I'm still going to wait for the employment report on Friday. My OEX puts are in the black but not by much. To far out of the money I suppose. It's possible that there is a negative divergence on the S&P 500 RSI and if that is the case then the puts will work. We'll know within the next couple of days. Gold finally took a breather today as the dollar had a snap back. Gold lost almost $20 and the XAU fell 8 2/3. ABX down 1 1/2, GG lost 2 1/2 and NEM dropped 2. Volume was average. I'm going to keep an eye on gold as usual but I don't think I'll play it here. That could change of course. It's still very overbought even with todays action. Mentally I'm still not 100% as I'm fighting a slight cold or something. It's simply a waiting game for Friday at this point. That will be the key in my opinion. If we close higher for the week the uptrend will remain intact. If we close lower it sets up an interesting weekly chart and we could be in for a sustained drop. That's my guess at this point.

A day to consolidate the gains as the Dow gained 19 points on average volume. Advance/declines were higher. My overnight order for the OEX puts was filled in the morning. They are at about break even. Another up day tomorrow and we will be short term overbought. It is a risky trade but then again they all are. I'm going to wait for the employment report on Friday regardless. So we'll see what happens. Gold was up $4 today and the XAU gained 3 1/2. ABX was uo 1, GG up 2 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside after yesterdays drop. The dollar lost ground again. The gold trade continues to work. The money continues to flow there. Perhaps I should have stepped up yesterday but if my idea of a drop in the stock market here is correct, the gold shares will initially follow I presume. Not to mention we are very overbought with respect to the gold shares and have been for a while. This won't last forever. Mentally I'm a bit tired. Did not sleep well and was woken up early. So a new trade has begun. Unless we get an upside breakout from here, which I doubt, I'll be waiting for Friday morning. We'll see how it goes.

Another week that starts off with a bang as the Dow gained 221 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. We have broken out to the upside from the consolidation of the past few weeks. Summation index to the upside. It's hard to argue with any of that. We are about at resistance though from the 200 day moving averages on some of the indices. I have an open order in for some OEX puts but it's a risky trade. I'd like to be short ahead of the employment report. We'll be short term overbought by Wednesday if this type of market action keeps up. Gold was flat and the XAU dropped 2 1/3. ABX and NEM were both off about a buck and GG lost over 2 1/2. Volume was pretty good to the downside. Perhaps the run up in the gold shares is finally coming to a close. Too early to know for sure. I'd like to perhaps still play them in the June cycle if they get oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Where do we go from here? It was a nice upside breakout today and I'd expect to see some follow through tomorrow. It really doesn't look like a market that you want to be short. However that could all change by the end of the week. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

We closed the month with a positive bias as the Dow gained 96 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Most of the gain came in the last hour and last few minutes. I canceled my order for the OEX puts. I might try again next week but it looks like we've moved sideways and are poised to head higher. I could be wrong. We haven't broken the channel we're in just yet. I'll need to go over everything this weekend. Gold continues in a straight line up, gaining $17. The XAU was up almost 5. ABX up a buck, GG rose 3/4 and NEM up 1 1/2. Volume was good. North Korea is threatening to blow up the world again. When the news hit early in the week gold didn't move. It did today. The dollar got whacked again and continues in free fall for now. We are at $980 for gold and $1000 seems inevitable. Do we blast through there? I don't know. Very overbought in gold here. I'll try and wait for a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We are about at the top of the recent channel in the S&P. It looks like we are about to break out to the upside. I could make a case to go either way here but the upside seems to be the way the market wants to go. There will be lots to think about over the weekend. For now it's time for a break.

Back and forth we go as the market decides which way to go. The Dow gained 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are still stuck in a trading range. I'm leaving in my open order for OEX puts but I'm not as sure about it as I was. We could be consolidating before we move to new recovery highs. That is certainly a possibility. I'll keep an eye on things and adjust my view accordingly. Gold is still moving higher, up $8 and now over 960. The XAU gained 6 1/3. ABX and GG were up over a buck and NEM rose 1 1/2. Volume was average. The dollar continues lower to support gold. It has been an incredible move and I'm not taking part. I think it's too late at this point but who knows? Mentally I'm doing OK, slept better last night. So where do we go from here? The market has held up better here than I expected. I'm getting the feeling that we are going to move higher. But that's a guess. The technicals are mixed at this point. End of the month tomorrow. I'm not sure how that may affect things. Missing the gold move here was a mistake. It has lasted longer than I expected. I certainly don't want to short gold here but I can't chase it now. I'm leaving in my order for the OEX puts for now and will decide what to do with it before the weekend.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 173 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. My overnight order for the OEX puts wasn't filled and perhaps it is too late. We'll see. Todays action will probably send the summation index lower again. I'm still leaning bearish. I'm leaving the OEX put order out there. We haven't broken 880 on the S&P 500. If we get there and fall through I will have to just buy some puts because then we will know that we are heading lower. Not there yet but I think it will happen. Gold was flat on the day but the XAU fell 2 1/2. ABX off 3/4, GG was flat and NEM lost 1 1/4. Volume was average. I'd like to try the gold shares if we fall further before the June expiration. The dollar showed a bit of strength. Overbought on gold and the gold shares. It is time for a rest but the momentum and money continue to go there. I am hopefully not going to chase things there. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept more. End of the month coming up. It looks like today was the day to buy some index puts. I may not get another chance. I suppose I should have adjusted my order but hindsight is always correct. I'll keep an eye on things and will try to be mentally ready for a break of 880 if that occurs.

We started the week off with a bang to the upside as the Dow gained 196 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Are we on our way to new recovery highs? Could be. There is a chance that we have just seen a consolidation here and are going to test the 200 day moving average lines for the S&P. It's possible. We'll know pretty soon I think. Regardless, I put in an overnight order for some OEX puts. I'm sticking with a down scenario for the June option cycle until proven otherwise. I could be wrong and the market will let me know I'm sure. Gold lost $5 and the XAU was flat. GG and NEM gained a touch while ABX lost a buck. Volume was average. Is ABX telling us something here? Who knows? It did lead on the way up here after NEM. The dollar was slightly higher today and is very oversold on a daily basis. The trend is up for the gold shares though and they sold off hard early before coming back strong. I may try the June calls if we get some weakness that is more than temporary. Mentally I'm feeling OK after a nice long weekend. Plenty of questions here as todays action probably brought the summation index back to the upside. I'll need to check the numbers tonight. I'm still leaning towards the bearish side but if we break the recent highs on strong volume I will have to review my strategy. Let's see if we get some follow through tomorrow.

We were higher for most of the day but dropped in the last hour for a loss of 15 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was light before the long weekend. I still would like to get some OEX puts here but we are oversold and due for a bounce in the beginning of next week. The other scenario would be that we drop from the open on Tuesday and take out 880 on the S&P 500. I'll hope for a bounce but the market will go where it wants. Gold was up another $7 today and had a great week. The XAU rose 1 1/2. ABX was up over a buck while GG and NEM each tacked on about 1/2. Volume was pretty good considering it was a get away Friday. The gold shares just continue to move higher as the dollar moves lower. I like them on a pullback but there hasn't been any. I'll have to think about chasing them over the weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept more. So where do we go from here? I'm still leaning towards the bearish case. I don't think 880 will hold on the S&P 500. I would like to get some index puts before that happens. The ideal purchase time may have already passed. But I still feel there is money to be made. I could be wrong though. However the summation index is moving down. As for gold it is on a tear but overbought. So that's a tougher call for me. I'll probably try the calls if it ever pulls back. The money has flowed there. But it can flow out just as fast as well. I'll have 3 days to ponder things. It's time for a rest though.

Continuing lower as the Dow lost 130 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. A late day comeback mitigated the damage done. Getting short term oversold here. The support at around 880 on the S&P 500 has held for now. I still like the OEX puts if we get a bounce here. But the market may not wait to head lower. Summation index will be back to pointing down here. Plenty of time in the June option cycle but I would have liked to be positioned already. I'm leaving in the OEX put open order. Gold was up $14 and continues higher in the aftermarket. The money is flowing there and you have to respect that. The XAU could only manage 2 points to the upside. ABX up 2/3, GG up 1/4 and NEM gained over a buck. Volume was good again but you have to think these issues need a rest. But who knows? The dollar continues lower, oversold and staying there. I don't think that it's too late for the gold shares but they are extended here. Tough call. Mentally I'm trying not to beat myself up over missing gold again and not getting short yesterday. You do what you can really. I just haven't been quick enough here. I'm working on it. Long weekend approaching so the trading might be light tomorrow. We'll see.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as we opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 52 points on better volume. Advance/declines were positive. It could be that I've missed the opportune time for the OEX puts but the jury is still out on that. The overall market wasn't as weak however volume did expand on the down move. I've got an open order in for some OEX puts but it may be too late. My ideal day to purchase them would be Monday if things hold up here. Gold had a good day, up over 10 bucks. The XAU climbed 7 1/4 points. ABX up 2 1/2, GG up 2 1/2 and NEM up 1 3/4. Volume expanded to the upside. I should have bought the calls on Monday. Thought about it but didn't do it. The dollar is in a free fall it seems here. That said the XAU looks like it has put in a 5-wave up move and could be due for a rest. That would coincide with my downside scenario that I'm looking for here. The gold shares are breaking out here on good volume so if there is a pullback to the breakout point, I'm getting some calls. It's all just a guess at this point but the gold shares are showing relative strength. Mentally I'm feeling so-so. Did not sleep solidly. So now what? Where do we go from here? I think we have or are building a top here. I want to own some stock index puts. A long holiday weekend coming up in 2 days. Trading should be thin after tomorrow and there is no new data after tomorrow either. We'll see what happens.

A slight pullback today as the Dow lost 29 points. The overall market fared a bit better. Advance/declines were positive and volume was average. I'm still leaning towards the OEX puts. I'd like to see some negative divergence with the McClellan oscillator at some point this week. But that may just be wishful thinking. I may try and let this week pass, we'll see. Gold was up $5 and the XAU rose 3 1/3. We were higher than that but sold off in the last hour along with the overall market. ABX up 1/2, GG up 2/3 and NEM up over a buck. Volume was light but better than yesterday. The dollar lost ground again. If we get a drop in the overall market it will probably take the gold shares along with it. Again, I'm going to try and wait for a pullback here before trying the calls. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So we'll have to see what happens from here. Perhaps today was the day to get the OEX puts, I don't know. I'm trying to stay patient with so much time left on the options. But the market certainly won't wait for me. On to Wednesday.

A very good Monday as the Dow gained 235 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. Often times the Monday after expiration does the opposite of the expiration. I believe that this is what we saw today. As long as the volume doesn't pick up to the upside, I'm going to get some OEX puts on a retest of the recent highs. We'll have to see how the next couple of days plays out. We also have a long weekend coming up with the Memorial day holiday. And it's early in the option cycle. Plenty to ponder. Gold lost about $10 today but the XAU was up 1/2. ABX and GG were little changed but down early. NEM lost 1/4. Volume was extremely light. The dollar was weaker today yet gold fell anyway. Working off the overbought short term condition in the gold shares. If the overall market drops as I presume, the gold shares will fall with it in the beginning. I'm in no rush to make a trade here but when we get oversold I'll be more interested. Of course that could all change tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Questions loom over exactly what we have going on here. I'll have to check the volume when things settle out tonight. You can't argue with price though. I may have to be patient here as well but who knows?

The Dow closed the week down 62 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. It was a downer week for the stock market. The summation index has turned down. I think the upside is limited from here. Again, I'd like to see a light volume retest of the recent highs and then get some OEX puts. But the market will do what it wants. Option expiration today was relatively mild. On to the June cycle and it's a week longer than usual. Gold was up a couple bucks today and the XAU dropped 2 points. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was light. The dollar was stronger today. We'll have to see how the dollar and gold do next week. Gold is overbought and the dollar is oversold. I still like the gold shares and may purchase some calls on a pullback. Mentally I'm feeling good. I didn't do anything stupid this week and it's time for the weekend. I think the overall market moves sideways to down here but that's a guess. I've stated the optimal scenario for buying the OEX puts for June and we'll have to wait and see how it unfolds. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. The extra week on the option cycle keeps the premiums high and that will have to be taken into consideration. So it's a couple of days to rest and back at it on Monday.

A slight bounce back as the Dow rose 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Expiration tomorrow and then we'll go from there. Next week should be positive in my view and that may be a chance to get some OEX puts. Perhaps I'll give the market some time to build a top. The summation index won't be going much higher, if at all. We'll have to see how things play out here but I'm leaning to the downside for the June cycle. Gold was up a couple of bucks and the XAU gained a point. ABX lost 1/4 while GG was up 1/2. NEM gained 3/4. Volume was lackluster. The gold shares sold off hard early but came all the way back and then some. I still like them on a pullback. Overbought and have stayed that way for a while. The dollar was weaker again today. Conditions seem to be favoring gold at the moment. But I need to see the technicals come off the overbought condition before a trade is made. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept more. An extra week on the June cycle and it's basically a waiting game for me at this point. It's all I can do. I've got some ideas going forward but we'll have to wait and see what the market tells us.

Continuing lower as the Dow lost 184 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index will be turning down today. Is the rally over? Probably. I'd like to see a light volume retest of the highs to get some OEX puts for the June cycle. But that's a best case scenario. The market will go where it wants. No trades for this week. I'll have to let the options expire and look to do something for June. Gold was up a couple of bucks but the XAU fell 4 points. ABX and GG lost 3/4, while NEM dropped 1 1/2. We are overbought here and a pullback would not be a surprise. I'm not going to chase things here but I still like the gold shares. However if we get a drop in the overall market the gold shares could fall in sympathy. The dollar was higher today and if we fall enough to raise the fear level again, money will flow into the dollar. So I think we are in a possible transition here but I don't know for sure. It's my guess at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Inflation data in the next couple of days and I don't expect anything out of the ordinary. I think the surprise will be in the June data but I could be wrong. So for now it's time to sit tight for a while I suppose. Never easy but sometimes necessary.

The Dow gained 50 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. The overall market was weaker. We were lower but made somewhat of a comeback. Only 3 days left for this option cycle. Will I try the OEX puts? Only if we get a bounce that cheapens the puts. But it's risky. I still might do it though. Gold gained $10 today as the dollar was weaker. The XAU gained almost 5 points. The HUI has broken out above 340. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by more than 1 1/2. The volume was average but the gold shares outperformed. Obviously I should have held the GG calls a bit longer. I would have tried the gold shares if we got some weakness in them early today but it didn't happen. So on it goes. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So where do we go from here? I think that we will be heading lower for the June option cycle. We've had a nice run but we are starting to see signs technically that we're running out of steam. The NASDAQ is not leading us higher anymore and has stalled at its 200 day moving average. If it could somehow break through there on heavy volume, I would change my mind. I still like gold and the gold shares too, even if we have a drop in the overall market. If we get a pullback there, I'll be looking to get long. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow took a hit today as it lost 155 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. It is options expiration week. It's probably too late for the OEX puts now but I can't rule anything out. Not a lot of time here though and the risk is high. Lots of divergences with the McClellan oscillator and we are just about at the top of the summation indexes range. I think we're there. That doesn't mean we can't move higher or go sideways but I think it does mean that the bulk of this rally is behind us. How to trade it is another matter. Gold didn't do much today, off a buck. the XAU was off about 1 1/2. ABX and GG off 1/2 and NEM lost a point. The volume was light. We were lower but made up a lot of ground in a hurry during the last 5 minutes. I don't know what it means but I may try the gold shares again this week. With only 4 days left? And overbought as we are? I might do it but again the risk is higher. The shorter term technicals will be the key. Gold isn't selling off here and I don't see any rally in the US dollar either. But that could all change tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Kind of itchy to make a trade here and that isn't the usual scenario during expiration week. However if I feel that something has a chance to work I'm going to try it. Leaning more towards gold since we have already fallen pretty good with regards to the Dow. So we'll see. I could also just sit tight here and roll on to the June cycle. An extra week in that particular cycle so the premiums will be expensive. Let's see what Tuesday brings.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 165 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The employment report really didn't matter. Unemployment continues to rise but so does the market. How long will it go on? Perhaps into the expiration. I'm still going to probably try the OEX puts at some point next week. But we'll have to wait and see on that. Gold moved both up and down but was little changed at the close. The XAU continues to outperform the metal as it rose 4 1/2 points. ABX and GG were up over 1 1/4, while NEM gained a buck. Volume was average. The dollar lost ground today but is oversold. Sure I would have liked to have held on to the GG calls but they're gone now. I still like the gold shares for the June cycle if we get a pullback. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not as tired. Of course I'm disappointed that I didn't make as much on the GG trade. It was declared dead at one point though and it was profitable. But I certainly could have done better. The question now is just how high will the stock market go here? Nobody knows. I'm going to check things out over the weekend and take it from there. We've already come a long way in a short time so my longer term view is that this is a bear market rally. But I could be wrong. It's Friday, the weekend is here and time for a break.

We headed lower today ahead of the so called "stress tests". The Dow lost 102 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. It was a one day reversal as we opened higher and closed lower. I'm still going to consider the OEX puts if we test the recent highs on lighter volume. But it might be too late. Employment report tomorrow. Gold was up another $6 but sold off in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 1 3/4. NEM and ABX were flat, while GG gained 7/8. All the gold shares were much higher early. Volume picked up a bit. I dumped the GG calls for a 70% gain. It should have been more but I can't complain too much since they were dead a week ago. The earnings were good and if the market hadn't been so weak I'm pretty sure GG would have done better. I still like the gold shares here and might try another trade before expiration. Mentally I'm pretty tired, did not sleep enough and was up early. I should have been better prepared mentally for the trade. It's always easy to see the mistakes looking back. I entered the trade too early and exited today too late. Not usually a winning combination. The power going down at the office halfway through the trading day didn't help things either. So on to tomorrow and I'll have to come up with something from here.

Powering higher as the Dow gained 101 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. A melt up? Who knows but you just can't short it here, can you? The summation index still has a bit of room to move to the upside after checking things yesterday. Overbought and staying there. It seems like the market will move higher regardless of the news. I'm still going to try the OEX puts at some point before expiration. Might wait until next week though. Gold was up $7 and the XAU rose 7 points. Finally gold and the gold shares are moving together. ABX, GG and NEM were all up about 1 1/2. The volume wasn't anything to write home about though. We are overbought here as well. But it looks like we are breaking out here on the XAU. GG earnings tomorrow morning and the calls are back where I bought them. The prudent thing would be to sell on any up move, if there is one, in the morning. The dollar was weaker today and that helped gold. Mentally I'm doing OK. What to do with the GG trade is the question. I'm considering myself lucky that it has any life left at all. The stochastic is at the top of the channel and that is the signal to get out really. We'll have to see how it opens tomorrow. However gold has broken its down trend line and the XAU has broken through resistance. It's never easy.

The market remains strong as it tried to sell off today and came back late. The Dow did lose 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. I would like to get some OEX puts here but probably won't. But you never know. Overbought now and we could stay there for a couple of days. Perhaps if we hold up for the rest of the week I'll give it a shot before the employment report. But the trend is up and you must respect that. Gold did little today and the XAU was up 2/3. Volume was light once again as ABX gained 2/3, GG lost 1/2 and NEM was up 1/4. The GG calls are still in trouble and the only hope at this point are the earnings out on Thursday. When it gets down to hope the odds are that the trade is dead. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as good as could be. Power outage here on Thursday and that is a factor. The market is strong here regardless of the data lately it seems. However the summation index is getting to the top of where it can go. That doesn't mean a big sell off per se but it does mean that the upside from here will not be as dramatic as it has been, in my opinion. But I could be wrong.

It was a good Monday for the bulls as the Dow rose 214 points. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was decent. Price and volume moving higher and you can't argue with that. Summation index still moving higher. We are overbought and if tomorrow is positive there will be a short term sell signal for the OEX. We are at resistance for the OEX here at just over 420. I may have to buy some puts but this market seems to just keep going up. It won't last forever though and there is plenty of data later in the week. We'll see. Gold was up $14 today and the XAU finally joined in, up 7 1/2. ABX was 1 3/4 higher, GG up 1 2/3 and NEM added 2 1/4. However the volume was missing as has been the case lately. My GG calls showed some life but they're still losers. Earnings on Thursday morning and I suppose I'll wait for that now. This could just be more sideways action for the gold shares but we'll have to see. Nothing says that it's otherwise at this point. The dollar was weaker today and that helped things along. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept pretty good. It's an important week and there's a problem here at the office. The power is going out halfway through the trading day on Thursday for some maintenance. There is no getting around it. So my data feed will be gone along with the ability to trade. I'll try and take care of things in the morning with contingent orders. But it isn't something that I'm pleased about. It also could keep me out of trading the OEX. So we'll see. I'll run the numbers tonight and come up with a plan for tomorrow.

We ended the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 44 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Beginning of the month money flows probably helped things here. We are getting near a possible sell signal but it isn't quite clear just yet. I think that we will see some weakness in the beginning of next week but I'm not sure if it will last or if it's trade worthy. I'll check things out this weekend. Gold lost around $5 today while the XAU was up 1/3. ABX and GG were flat while NEM lost around 1 1/2. Volume was the usual light. NEM has been the leader and I don't like the fact it was down so much. I suppose I may as well wait for the GG earnings at this point. Regardless, the GG call trade will be a loser. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Lots of info next week with the bank stress tests and the employment report. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now, time for a break.