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Friday, May 22, 2009

We were higher for most of the day but dropped in the last hour for a loss of 15 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was light before the long weekend. I still would like to get some OEX puts here but we are oversold and due for a bounce in the beginning of next week. The other scenario would be that we drop from the open on Tuesday and take out 880 on the S&P 500. I'll hope for a bounce but the market will go where it wants. Gold was up another $7 today and had a great week. The XAU rose 1 1/2. ABX was up over a buck while GG and NEM each tacked on about 1/2. Volume was pretty good considering it was a get away Friday. The gold shares just continue to move higher as the dollar moves lower. I like them on a pullback but there hasn't been any. I'll have to think about chasing them over the weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept more. So where do we go from here? I'm still leaning towards the bearish case. I don't think 880 will hold on the S&P 500. I would like to get some index puts before that happens. The ideal purchase time may have already passed. But I still feel there is money to be made. I could be wrong though. However the summation index is moving down. As for gold it is on a tear but overbought. So that's a tougher call for me. I'll probably try the calls if it ever pulls back. The money has flowed there. But it can flow out just as fast as well. I'll have 3 days to ponder things. It's time for a rest though.

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