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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

It was a one day reversal to the downside as we opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 52 points on better volume. Advance/declines were positive. It could be that I've missed the opportune time for the OEX puts but the jury is still out on that. The overall market wasn't as weak however volume did expand on the down move. I've got an open order in for some OEX puts but it may be too late. My ideal day to purchase them would be Monday if things hold up here. Gold had a good day, up over 10 bucks. The XAU climbed 7 1/4 points. ABX up 2 1/2, GG up 2 1/2 and NEM up 1 3/4. Volume expanded to the upside. I should have bought the calls on Monday. Thought about it but didn't do it. The dollar is in a free fall it seems here. That said the XAU looks like it has put in a 5-wave up move and could be due for a rest. That would coincide with my downside scenario that I'm looking for here. The gold shares are breaking out here on good volume so if there is a pullback to the breakout point, I'm getting some calls. It's all just a guess at this point but the gold shares are showing relative strength. Mentally I'm feeling so-so. Did not sleep solidly. So now what? Where do we go from here? I think we have or are building a top here. I want to own some stock index puts. A long holiday weekend coming up in 2 days. Trading should be thin after tomorrow and there is no new data after tomorrow either. We'll see what happens.

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